Poland’s ruling liberal-globalist coalition has recently taken a much more hardline approach towards Ukraine than the conservative-nationalist opposition did during its time in power for the reasons that were explained here. In a nutshell, the liberal-globalists want to appeal to patriotic sentiment ahead of next year’s presidential election since they hope to replace the outgoing conservative-nationalist leader with one of their own. This can only realistically happen by playing the Ukrainian card.
The opposition just challenged them to prove their nationalist credentials, however, by submitting a bill banning the glorification of Bandera by making it just as illegal as it currently is to glorify Nazism, fascism, and communism. Readers can learn more about the specifics here. Seeing as how they don’t control parliament, the only way for this bill to pass is if members of the ruling liberal-globalist coalition support it. There are compelling arguments for why they might or might not do so.
As for why they might go along with this, it would reinforce the perception of their newfound nationalist credentials that they’re carefully cultivating ahead of next year’s presidential election. Passing this bill into law could also bolster their demand that Ukraine exhume and properly bury the Volhynia Genocide victims’ remains as the requirement for Poland advancing its neighbor’s EU membership bid. It could also preclude the quid pro quo that Kiev is implying for Warsaw to protect OUN “memorials” in Poland.
On the other hand, they might oppose this out of concern that it’ll irreparably ruin relations with Ukraine and thus create space for Germany to speed up the replacement of Poland’s increasingly lost influence there. Another reason not to vote for it is that the EU might resume its pressure upon Poland, which the ruling coalition was able to relieve over the past year, on the “human rights” pretext that Bandera-glorifying Ukrainian refugees could be deported for “exercising their freedom of speech”.
Their calculations therefore come down to whether they consider it worth risking worse ties with Ukraine and the EU in exchange for giving themselves a boost ahead of next year’s presidential election and further pressuring Kiev into finally complying with their Volhynia Genocide demand. It’s definitely a dilemma and one in which the conservative-nationalist opposition masterfully placed their liberal-globalist opponents since the former benefits no matter what the latter ultimately decides to do.
If their opponents go along with this bill, then they can claim credit for introducing it, while opposing it would dispel the illusion that the ruling coalition is sincere with their newfound nationalist credentials. Whatever consequences either decision leads to, such as a worsening of ties with Ukraine and the EU if it’s approved or Ukraine remaining calcitrant on resolving the Volhynia Genocide dispute on Poland’s terms if it fails, would also be blamed entirely on the liberal-globalists instead of the opposition.
It remains to be seen what the liberal-globalists will do, but the conservative-nationalists unexpectedly forced them to decide how far they’ll go with playing the Ukrainian card and whether they’re willing to face the possible consequences of taking the truly patriotic stance on this. The only reason why this is coming up now is because of next year’s presidential election, but it’s better for this policy to be promulgated even for such politically self-serving reasons than not to be promulgated at all.
