Putin plans to meet with new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at an event in Turkmenistan on Friday celebrating that host country’s most famous poet. The Russian leader’s attendance there was previously unannounced so it’s obvious that recent events prompted him to take time out of his busy schedule to meet with his Iranian counterpart for the first time since the latter took office this summer. Here’s what they’ll likely discuss:
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1. Iran’s Response To Israel’s Expected Retaliation
Israel has delayed what many expected to be its immediate response to Iran’s latest missile strike, which sets the precedent for Iran also possibly delaying its response to Israel’s seemingly inevitable retaliation, especially if it happens before Friday. Putin doesn’t want these back-and-forth attacks to lead to a larger war so he’ll likely lean on Pezeshkian to exercise restraint. For its part, Iran wants to learn what support Russia might provide it in the worst-case scenario, though it’ll probably be disappointed.
2. Defense Systems For Deterrence & De-Escalation
Building upon the above, it’s also possible that Putin will offer Pezeshkian state-of-the-art Russian air defense systems as part of his country’s policy of deterring a large-scale Israeli response for de-escalation purposes, though the equipment might not come in time (if it hasn’t already arrived per prior rumors). From Russia’s perspective, shooting down incoming Israeli missiles (if that’s how Israel responds) like Israel shot down incoming Iranian ones in spring could lead to a mutually “face-saving” lull in hostilities.
3. Their Updated Strategic Partnership Document
The Iranian Ambassador to Russia confirmed earlier this month that the updated Russian-Iranian Strategic Partnership document is ready for signing and could either happen on the sidelines of the upcoming BRICS Summit or at another time as part of a bilateral visit. These options will probably be discussed between Putin and Pezeshkian, who might also negotiate secret clauses such as those involving clandestine arms transfers per the prior and proceeding points.
4. Speculative Iranian Military Exports To Russia
Both sides have denied it, but reports have circulated for a while about Iranian drone and missile exports to Russia, which their leaders might also discuss during their upcoming meeting. If such clandestine transfers are indeed taking place, then Russia will want to learn whether they’ll continue in light of Iran’s newfound direct hostilities with Israel. Ensuring that their conflict doesn’t spiral out of control might therefore also be meant to ensure that more Iranian arms are available for Russia to buy.
5. Their Disagreement Over The Zangezur Corridor
The Russian-Iranian disagreement over the Zangezur Corridor was elaborated on here last month, but it still remains and will therefore likely also be discussed by Putin and Pezeshkian. After all, it’s serious enough that Iran summoned the Russian Ambassador to complain, yet neither side has publicly changed their stance on this sensitive issue. If it continues to be an irritant in their ties, then the signing of their strategic partnership document might be delayed and Russian-Indian trade via Iran could be impeded.
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The Putin-Pezeshkian meeting will be important, but not in the way that some have convinced themselves it will be with regard to imagining that Russia will promise to support Iran if it enters into a full-scale hot war with Israel. Their leaders will discuss regional tensions, but the most that Russia is expected to do is possibly sell state-of-the-art air defense systems to Iran for deterrence and de-escalation purposes. Their meeting won’t be a game-changer and won’t reshape regional dynamics.
