Avaleht Esileht Net-Zero Emissions Plan ‘Unrealistic,’ Says Prominent Professor

Net-Zero Emissions Plan ‘Unrealistic,’ Says Prominent Professor

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Mihkel Johannes Paimla
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Liiklus liigub mööda Interstate 80 Berkeleys, Calif., 24. augustil 2022.

A noted Canadian professor and public policy commentator says the global plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050 is “unrealistic,” and Canada and other countries are “highly unlikely” to accomplish the transition by that date.

Distinguished University of Manitoba professor emeritus and author Vaclav Smil made the comments in a report, Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050: Zero Carbon Is a Highly Unlikely Outcome, released May 28.

Mr. Smil said the plan faces problems due to the cost of changing infrastructure and increasing mining for resources, as well as the need for Western countries to cover the price of helping low-income countries build new energy infrastructure.

“The plan to eliminate fossil fuels and achieve a net-zero economy faces formidable economic, political, and practical challenges,” Mr. Smil said in a Fraser Institute news release.
Canada and other high-income countries would need to spend at least 20 percent of their GDP to achieve the goal, according to the report.
Ottawa has a plan to achieve net zero by 2050, which means either eliminating greenhouse gas emissions in the country, or offsetting emissions in other ways. The plan calls for a 40 to 45 percent reduction in emissions by 2030.

Mr. Smil said global consumption of fossil fuels increased 55 percent between 1997 and 2023, raising the question of how to transition away.

“The current energy networks are complex, their establishment and operation require constant maintenance and upgrading, and their costs are considerable, yet they are only one of many parts that make up the vastly more complex global energy system. That is why global energy transitions are complicated, multifaceted, protracted, and in their details rather unpredictable,” he wrote.

“The [net-zero] goal may be desirable, but it remains unrealistic.”

Electric Vehicles

Mr. Smil also criticized Ottawa’s push for more electric vehicles (EVs) on the roads as a contribution toward Canada’s net-zero emissions goals.

Transport Canada says there has been “steady growth” in zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in recent years and 8.9 percent of light-duty vehicle sales were ZEVs, up from 5.6 percent in 2021, and 3.8 percent in 2020.

Ottawa says that by 2026, 20 percent of new light-duty vehicles will be ZEV, increasing to 60 percent by 2030 and 100 percent by 2035.

However, a hurdle to switching to electric vehicles is the resources needed. Mr. Smil said the government’s plan would require 40 times more lithium and up to 25 times more cobalt, nickel, and graphite, adding to the cost as well as raising a question of practicality.

“Replacing today’s 1.35 billion light-duty gasoline and diesel vehicles with EVs and supplying the expanded market (estimated at 2.2 billion cars by 2050) would thus require nearly 150 million tons of additional copper during the next 27 years,” Mr. Smil wrote in his report. “That is an equivalent of more than seven years of today’s annual copper extraction for all of the metal’s many industrial and commercial uses,” he said.

Political Divide

The emissions reduction issue has caused division between the federal government and some provinces, including Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has said that Ottawa’s oil and gas cap plan will end up in the Supreme Court of Canada.

“I think that that’s where this is headed,” she said earlier this year. “But in the meantime, we’re going to make sure that they do not damage the investment climate that we have in Alberta.”

Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe said the federal government’s regulations would have serious economic consequences.

Both provinces have said that Ottawa is overstepping with its net-zero policies, and both have enacted legislation to confirm their autonomy and jurisdiction.

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