Russia is Algeria’s traditional defense partner but that might change due to this North African country’s new military partnerships with the US and India. Algeria signed a “first-of-its-kind” agreement with the US last month that unnamed American defense sources told DefenseScoop could lead to “possible weapons exchanges and new joint asset deployments”. Meanwhile, Algeria’s top military officials recently wrapped up a multi-day trip to India, where they’re looking buy lots of new equipment.
The larger context concerns Mali’s accusation at last September’s UNGA that Algeria supports terrorist groups against it, which refers to the anti-state Tuareg militias with whom they’ve once again been warring since Bamako scrapped the 2015 Algiers Accord in January 2024. This accusation was also reiterated in a government statement at the start of the year. These same militias received Ukrainian support when carrying out last July’s devastating ambush of Wagner fighters near the Algerian border.
Russia’s military support to Mali has been indispensable in its fight against regional terrorist groups, which has helped secure the larger Sahelian Alliance of which it’s a part, thus accelerating multipolar processes in this corner of Africa. The problem though is that Algeria disagrees with Mali’s designation of anti-state Tuareg militias as terrorists despite their reported alliance with Al Qaeda’s regional franchise. Here are five background briefings that’ll help readers get a better understanding of these dynamics:
* 15 February 2023: “Russia’s Newfound Appeal To African Countries Is Actually Quite Easy To Explain”
* 18 September 2023: “The Newly Formed Sahelian Alliance Will Reshape Regional Military-Strategic Dynamics”
* 13 April 2024: “The Arrival Of Russian Troops In Niger Will Reshape The US’ Regional Calculations”
* 29 July 2024: “The Tuareg Conflict Is Much More Complex Than Casual Observers Might Imagine”
* 30 August 2024: “Close Russian Partner Algeria Wants Wagner To Withdraw From Mali”
To summarize, Russian-Algerian ties are being tested by the latest Malian-Tuareg conflict and those anti-state militias’ ties with Ukraine, which could have only been possible with Algeria’s facilitation. After all, it’s easier for Kiev’s GUR and/or Ukrainian-trained Tuaregs to (re-)enter the Tuaregs’ ethnic areas in Mali from adjacent Algeria than to risk capture by secretly traveling the much longer route to there from the African coast somewhere, which must also pass through the Sahelian Alliance. This much is obvious.
After last July’s ambush, Russia still played it cool for diplomatic reasons while Algeria apparently accelerated its military diversification policy by prioritizing new partnerships with India and then the US, all with the intent of preparing for the scenario of more troubled ties with its top arms partner. 48% of Algeria’s military wares were provided by Russia between 2019-2023, though Russian exports to Algeria decreased by a whopping 83% between 2014-2018 and 2019-2023 according to SIPRI.
Algeria seemingly suspects that Russia might leverage its dominant military supply role to coerce concessions on the latest Mali-Tuareg conflict, which Algiers wouldn’t comply with for national security reasons, ergo why it’s now exploring Indian and US arms deals to hedge against this scenario. These suppliers were chosen to help Algeria maintain its East-West balancing act. This observation suggests an intensification of the Russian-Algerian rivalry in Mali and the consequent worsening of its conflict.
