Last weekend’s Western-centric Ukrainian peace talks in Jeddah were preceded by speculation among some in the Alt-Media Community (AMC) that India’s participation supposedly signaled an intent to abandon its policy of principled neutrality and take Kiev’s side in the NATO-Russian proxy war. There was nothing wrong with India attending that event, plus it’s proven its strategic autonomy in the New Cold War as argued here and here, and now there’s no doubt about this after a recent reputable report.
The Economic Times is one of India’s most trusted news sources, and it cited people familiar with National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval’s participation in those talks who confirmed that his country showcased its neutrality while there. The present piece will analyze what they reported while also placing it all into the larger context. To begin with, this outlet’s sources specifically told them that he said the following words that they believed were credible enough to pass off as one of NSA Doval’s quotes:
“Currently, several peace proposals have been put forward. Each has some positive points but none is acceptable to both sides. The key question that needs to be addressed in this meeting is whether a solution that is acceptable to all relevant stakeholders can be found.”
The Modi Administration hasn’t pushed back against the Economic Times’ report by the time that the present piece was published so it should be assumed that everything contained within it is accurate. Considering this, there’s actually quite a lot to analyze in those three simple sentences. For starters, NSA Doval said that there are several peace proposals, which indirectly confirms reports after the talks that Saudi Arabia shared its own after Ukraine’s and China’s since this word refers to at least more than two.
Beijing’s and Riyadh’s involve a ceasefire along the entire frontline, which Kiev has already publicly said is unacceptable to it while Moscow has pragmatically remained mum about its stance towards that scenario, thus suggesting that NSA Doval was referring to Ukraine’s obstinance in his second sentence. This assessment is all the more compelling when taking into account the last part of his quote regarding “whether” it’s even possible to find a mutually acceptable solution.
He was obviously being diplomatic considering his position and the place where he was invited to speak, but it certainly seems like he was hinting that a ceasefire might ultimately be inevitable whether Kiev likes it or not, in which case it would be due to circumstances on the ground and not international talks. Elaborating on this interpretation, that could conceivably occur around wintertime after Kiev’s failed counteroffensive sputters out once and for all, especially if the US curtails arms supplies as a result.
Moving along, the Economic Times then reported that “Doval is also understood to have said at the meeting that India will remain an active and willing partner to find a lasting and comprehensive solution and that it will be satisfied with a comprehensive solution. He reiterated India’s focus on dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward.” This approach is consistent with his country’s policy of principled neutrality and displays a willingness to mediate a compromise if requested by both parties to do so.
The next part revealed that “India has regularly engaged both Russia and Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict at the highest levels, the NSA told the delegates. He said India supported the global order based on principles enshrined in the United Nations Charter and international law. Respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity by all states must be upheld without exception, he said.” The AMC will likely spin the last two sentences to fit their false narrative, hence why they’ll now be clarified.
NSA Doval’s reference to the UN Charter is no different than Russia’s, Ukraine’s, or anyone else’s since all countries believe that they’re acting in accordance with the principles enshrined in international law. It would therefore be dishonest for anyone to point to this as proof that India isn’t neutral, and the same can be said regarding his subsequent words about sovereignty and territorial integrity. While a surface reading might suggest a swipe against Russia, a deeper reflection proves that this isn’t the case.
India is currently embroiled in fierce territorial disputes with China and Pakistan, which is why it never misses a chance to reaffirm the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity at every relevant opportunity so as to remind the international community about its stance towards these regional issues. It’s never the case unless explicitly stated otherwise that India is referring to anything else. With this in mind, any anti-Russian spin on NSA Doval’s words is agenda-driven and doesn’t reflect reality.
Having clarified that, the rest of what he said is much more clear-cut. For instance, the Economic Times wrote that “All peace efforts involving stakeholders must be pursued to find a just and enduring solution, Doval is understood to have said, adding that it is in this spirit that India participated in the meeting in Jeddah.” This is self-explanatory and aligns with the insight that was earlier shared about India’s policy of principled neutrality and its desire to mediate a diplomatic solution if requested by both parties to do so.
His conclusion was thus: “The whole world, and especially the global south, are bearing the brunt of the situation, Doval said, adding that India is providing both humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and economic assistance to its neighbours in the global south. The meeting confronts a twofold challenge – resolution of the situation and softening the consequences of the conflict. Efforts must be directed on both fronts simultaneously and much more groundwork is needed to ensure this, the NSA suggested.”
India’s efforts since the start of the year to promote itself as the Voice of the Global South are aimed at leveraging its status as the world’s most populous country and host of this year’s G20 to help relieve the hardships that fellow developing countries have experienced since February 2022. Its focus on softening the consequences of this conflict is in consonance with that goal, as is the economic aid it’s given those countries, while its humanitarian aid to Ukraine is typical of what it gives to conflict-affected states.
Recalling NSA Doval’s previously implied pessimism about “whether a solution that is acceptable to all relevant stakeholders can be found” and the ensuant likelihood that circumstances on the ground will coerce Kiev into a ceasefire, India can possibly mediate the latter in parallel with aiding the Global South. A “just and enduring solution” might be beyond anyone’s reach and others like Turkiye could ultimately mediate, however, but the flipside is that India would then focus entirely on fellow developing countries.
Regardless of however events unfold, nothing that NSA Doval was reported to have said at last weekend’s Western-centric peace talks on Ukraine contradicts India’s policy of principled neutrality towards this conflict, which shows that sensational concerns from the AMC were misplaced. Instead of abandoning this stance in favor of Kiev, India strengthened the first while signaling that the second should show some flexibility in order to get better terms on the seemingly inevitable ceasefire.
