Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Admiral Vladimir Vorobyev signed a naval cooperation agreement with landlocked Ethiopia last week while visiting its Maritime Training Institute. Readers can learn more about Ethiopia’s policy of peacefully regaining free and full access to the sea here and here. Ethiopia is one of Russia’s oldest partners anywhere in the world so it’s natural that they’d cooperate in this strategic sphere. Here are five takeaways from this development that make it newsworthy:
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1. Russia Reaffirmed Its Belief In Ethiopia’s Peaceful Intentions
Ethiopia’s abovementioned policy was maliciously twisted by neighboring Eritrea and Somalia to fearmonger about its aggressive regional intentions, yet while ties with Somalia recently improved, they’ve also recently deteriorated with Eritrea partially over this issue. By signing their naval cooperation agreement, Russia is reaffirming its belief in Ethiopia’s peaceful intentions, which Eritrea should interpret as a signal that Russia doesn’t approve of its thinly veiled opposition to Ethiopia’s policy. .
2. The First Phase Will Likely Be Experience-Sharing & Training
Ethiopia hasn’t had a navy for over three decades so it must have understandably lost some of its experience in operating one, which is why Russia is expected to share its own experiences with Ethiopia as the first likely phase of their naval cooperation and possibly train its sailors on Russian vessels too. The time and resources that’ll be invested into these education programs also prove that Russia believes that Ethiopia will indeed succeed in its policy of peacefully regaining free and full access to the sea.
3. The Next One Could Then See Naval Sales And/Or Transfers
Russia’s naval modernization plans might result in some of its existing vessels being rendered redundant, yet these same vessels could still meet the needs of the Ethiopian Navy, hence why it’s expected that they’d be sold and/or transferred for free as the next phase of their naval cooperation at a later date. It’s premature to predict the details other than to assess that it would make the most sense for Ethiopia to rely on Russia for this instead of any other partner in light of their recently signed agreement.
4. The Quid Pro Quo Might Be Joint Use Of Future Ethiopian Ports
Ethiopia is cash-strapped and might not want to barter natural resources for naval cooperation with Russia so it’s possible that their quid pro quo could be that Ethiopia ensures that whatever port agreements it clinches in the region also allow for Russia’s joint use of these facilities. The right to friendly port calls, logistics support, and the opportunity for trilateral drills between Russia, Ethiopia, and the host state would advance Moscow’s security interests in the strategic Gulf of Aden-Red Sea region.
5. Others Could Be Drawn To Russia By Ethiopia’s Successful Example
And lastly, other countries could be drawn to Russia after seeing for themselves how it would have by then successfully trained and equipped the revived Ethiopian Navy, which might expand the Kremlin’s influence among landlocked and coastal countries alike. Closer military cooperation between them regardless of which armed service it focuses on would help diversify their respective partnerships, thus making them less dependent on traditional Western ones, and also bring tangible benefits.
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The newly signed Russian-Ethiopian naval cooperation agreement is therefore much more newsworthy than casual observers might have thought if they earlier came across this headline while most others probably haven’t even heard about this until now. In any case, both parties stand to gain from this arrangement, with Ethiopia obtaining training and likely equipment too with time while Russia bolsters its reputation as a reliable military partner and might even obtain access to a future naval base or two.
