Several NATO members have already agreed to provide so-called “security guarantees” to Ukraine whereby they promised to extend arms, intelligence, logistics, and other forms of support to it in the event that another conflict breaks out with Russia. These pacts essentially formalized their existing support to Ukraine and aren’t anything new even though Kiev has spun them as supposedly being game-changing military-strategic breakthroughs.
The situation with Armenia is very different than Ukraine, however, since it’s not involved in an active conflict with any of its neighbors. Moreover, the country is still formally part of the Russian-led CSTO despite unofficially suspending its participation in this bloc, though Moscow has reaffirmed that it still has mutual defense obligations to Yerevan if its existence is ever threatened. Armenia’s landlocked geography also impedes NATO’s ability to extend Ukrainian-like support even in that worst-case scenario.
Furthermore, Armenia regards NATO member Turkiye as a possible threat to its existence, and it’s unrealistic that the bloc’s second-largest military would allow fellow members to use its territory for shipping arms to Armenia for use against its own troops in those two ever go to war. The only realistic avenue is for them to supply Armenia via the Black Sea and Georgia, which could occur in peacetime and be complemented by building up stockpiles in those two countries ahead of time.
The only reason why Armenia wants “security guarantees” of this sort from NATO is because it doesn’t expect Russia to protect it in the event of an existential conflict. This wayward CSTO member is probably also plotting to withdraw from that bloc and apply to join NATO despite official denials. Nothing else cogently accounts for why Armenia is preparing for another war right now after losing the latest one to Azerbaijan and not having any formal territorial claims to its neighbors (nor do they have any to it).
That being the case, these “security guarantees” would likely be intended to smooth Armenia’s transition from the CSTO to NATO, the latter of which it might only join de facto along the lines of Ukraine’s current status. Even so, unlike Ukraine which is currently in a hot conflict with Russia, Armenia is currently at peace with all of its neighbors, thus raising questions about why it and NATO are already preparing for another war when no formal pretext exists since nobody has any claims to anyone else.
This move is therefore very suspicious since it suggests that Armenia and NATO might have plans for waging war against Azerbaijan that could be initiated by a sneak attack aimed at reconquering Karabakh. A “self-defense” pretext could be artificially manufactured via future Armenian provocations that prompt an Azeri response in legitimate self-defense, but which is spun by NATO as an alleged “act of unprovoked aggression in violation of international law” to falsely justify preplanned Armenian aggression.
Azerbaijan is aware of this scenario and that’s why it wants to delineate the border with Armenia as soon as possible in order to resolve all potential territorial disputes before its neighbor is emboldened by NATO “security guarantees” to provoke a false pretext for waging another war. Nevertheless, NATO might push Armenia to act before it’s ready if it feels that the window of opportunity is rapidly closing, but that would risk national suicide and a revolt from real Armenian patriots who want to save their country.
