Chair of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee Michael McCaul said during his visit to India’s Dharamshala as the head of a bipartisan delegation of American lawmakers meeting with the Dalai Lama that Biden is expected to soon sign the “Resolve Tibet Act” that was approved by Congress last week. The public isn’t all that aware of what this law entails since it didn’t receive much media coverage in the run-up to its passing, but the following points encapsulate the change in policy that it’ll bring:
* The US will revive its former concerns over the means through which China came to control Tibet;
* Accordingly, it’ll once again openly support the Tibetan people’s “self-determination”;
* This will also include promotion of their separate identity vis-à-vis China’s majority ethnic Han;
* As could have been expected, the US will now actively counter “disinformation” on this issue too;
* And it’ll redefine the geographic scope of Tibet to include neighboring regions claimed by exile groups.
Essentially, American policy towards Tibet will tacitly come to resemble the one that it earlier applied towards the Baltics, namely “non-recognition” of the legitimacy behind that region’s incorporation into its larger neighbor while still recognizing the ground realities when formulating defense policy. China reacted furiously to the delegation’s trip, but that’s not expected to deter the US from going through with its plans since reopening the “Tibet Question” is part of its “Pivot (back) to Asia”.
The US is currently tightening its containment noose around China in the first island chain through its newly assembled “Squad” of Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and (informally) Taiwan. This replicates the Ukrainian model of weaponizing a regional security dilemma in order to manipulate its rival into commencing military action in preemptive self-defense. President Xi reportedly warned about this plot during a private meeting with von der Leyen in April 2023 so China is well aware of it.
These efforts are expected to ramp up once the Ukrainian Conflict inevitably ends and the US reprioritizes its anti-Chinese containment efforts in the Asia-Pacific over its anti-Russian ones in Europe. Biden’s impending signing of the “Resolve Tibet Act” will reopen this political containment front in the Himalayas and immediately increase the strategic importance of Indian-based Tibetan exile groups ahead of the predictable succession crisis that’ll follow the Dalai Lama’s passing.
This move parallels India’s tacit reopening of the “Tibet Question” via its planned renaming of 30 places in that region, which is a response to China renaming places in the Indian State of Arunachal Pradesh that Beijing claims as its own as “South Tibet” despite only briefly controlling a sliver of it in 1962. Indo-US ties have been troubled over the past year for the reasons that can be learned about here since they’re beyond the scope of this piece to explain, but this strategic convergence can help improve them.
India’s problems with China are independent of the US’ so it would be inaccurate for observers to speculate that the first will become the second’s proxy for waging another round of Hybrid War on China in the Himalayas. Nevertheless, closer political coordination between them on this issue is possible if Sino-Indo ties continue deteriorating. Even so, India won’t ever allow the US to control Tibetan exile groups on its soil, with their activities remaining autonomous and under Delhi’s ambit if anything.
Returning to the bipartisan US delegation visit to Dharamshala that provoked China’s fury, this wouldn’t have been possible without the Indian government’s approval, so Beijing might partially blame Delhi for the inflammatory rhetoric that those members spewed while there and thus politically respond to it. India isn’t the US’ keeper, but it must have known that this trip would make headlines given that it followed Congress’ passing of the “Resolve Tibet Act” and included high-profile participants like Pelosi.
Former Indian Ambassador to Russia and incumbent Chancellor of Jawaharlal Nehru University Kanwal Sibal explained India’s calculations in a tweet that can be read here. He said that denying visas to the delegation or telling them that they can’t make any public statements would have looked weak after everything that China did to India. Ambassador Sibal added that India didn’t need the US to “provoke” China since it could have simply invited Taiwanese and Tibetan representatives to Modi’s inauguration.
His insight is important to keep in mind since members of the Alt-Media Community, the majority of whom sympathize with China (largely due to the leftist views that many of them espouse), will likely claim that this development supposedly proves that India is the US’ “Trojan Horse” in BRISC and the SCO. That’s not true for the reasons that were already explained, not to mention India rebuffing US pressure to dump Russia and then defiantly redoubling their ties afterwards, so nobody should take that seriously.
Altogether, Indo-US efforts in support of Tibet’s “self-determination” (whether independently or jointly and regardless of the extent to which they go) won’t change the ground reality of Chinese control there, thus making them media and political means for signaling their displeasure with Beijing. As ties with both predictably deteriorate even further as a result, the speed at which the center of the New Cold War moves from Europe to Asia will accelerate, thus inadvertently relieving some pressure on Russia.
