Poland and Ukraine signed their long-negotiated “security guarantee” pact on Monday during Zelensky’s surprise visit to Warsaw ahead of this week’s NATO Summit in DC. It can be read in full here, with a lot of it concerning standard military cooperation of the sort that Ukraine already agreed to with the UK and the US, but there are also unique security details and plenty of socio-economic and political ones too. Here’s what most folks might have missed about this ~9000-word pact in ascending order of importance:
———-
* There’s A Very Emotive Socio-Cultural, Historical, & Political Background
The preamble notes that they “reaffirm their common historical legacy, and recognize the closeness of both cultures, languages, political traditions of their Nations”, which is unlike any of the ties that Ukraine has with the other NATO members with whom it’s already signed “security guarantees”. The subtext is that there’s a special relationship between them, which hints at Poland obtaining a more privileged position over all Ukrainian affairs than others due to its former status as that country’s ‘big brother’.
* New Curriculum Guidelines For Schoolbooks Aim To Foster Reconciliation
The parties agreed to “develop common instruments for historical research as well as curriculum guidelines for school textbooks on history of relations of the two States and Nations, particularly building on the Polish-Ukrainian brotherhood in arms in the 1920 war with Bolshevik Russia.” They also expressed a desire to “seek – with the support of research centres – reconciliation with regard to contentious issues resulting from the difficult history of both States”, all of which could lead to whitewashing history.
* Poland Will Wage Information Warfare On Russia In Coordination With Ukraine
The pact stipulates that Poland will “promote EU, NATO and other multilateral efforts and initiatives aimed at reaching more effectively key audiences in and outside of Europe with facts about [the Ukrainian Conflict from Kiev’s perspective]”. This aligns with the purpose of the newly created Warsaw-based “Ukraine Communications Group” from last month, with the end result being that Ukraine’s international messaging will become increasingly supported by and therefore dependent upon Poland.
* Poland Will Behave As Ukraine’s ‘Big Brother’ In All International Fora
Polish information support of Ukraine will also extend to it supporting that country’s interests in international fora such as NATO, the G7, UN, OSCE, Council of Europe, OECD, the World Bank, the IMF, European financial institutions, and even the European Space Agency. By allowing Poland to behave as its ‘big brother’, Ukraine is tacitly accepting its ‘little brother’ status and the clear-cut hierarchy that’s de facto enshrined in their relations through this pact.
* Poland Will Guide Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic Integration Reform Processes
The abovementioned observation is confirmed by their pact declaring that Poland will guide Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration processes, including to rectify agricultural disputes, so as to facilitate its membership in the EU and NATO. Furthermore, “Poland is ready to deploy technical experts embedded in the Ukrainian administration”, which would entrench Polish influence over the government if Kiev agrees and essentially turn Ukraine into a Polish client state.
* Their Complex Economic Interdependence Will Further Intensify
On a related note, Poland and Ukraine committed to simplify the ease of doing business in one another’s countries, which is expected to lead to the full-spectrum expansion of trade and investment ties that draws them into an even more intense relationship of complex economic interdependence than before. Considering the power asymmetries between them, this could easily be lopsided in Poland’s support through the machinations of those Polish “technical experts embedded in the Ukrainian administration.”
* Poland Might Exploit More Physical Connectivity To Its Hegemonic Benefit
Building upon the preceding two points, the expansion of road, rail, energy, and air connectivity between them coupled with Ukraine’s failure to join the EU anytime soon will lead to a situation where Poland could leverage its gatekeeper status vis-à-vis Ukraine and the West for its hegemonic benefit. Poland’s privileged access to Ukrainian resources (natural and labor) and business opportunities (arms and reconstruction) could even fuel the former’s revival as a leading European power at the latter’s expense.
* Poland Will Remain The West’s Military-Logistical Hub For Ukraine
Poland’s promise to continue operating the Polish Logistics Hub (POLLOGHUB) in Rzeszow shows that both parties are confident that protesters won’t carry out any more long-term border closures. This observation testifies to their renewed mutual trust and desire to resolve their prior agricultural dispute, both of which were already touched upon earlier in this analysis. The point is that Western military-logistics aid to Ukraine will remain dependent on Poland and not diversify to Romania like some thought.
* Poland Will Continue Servicing & Repairing Ukrainian Military Equipment
It’s old news that Poland is servicing and repairing Ukrainian military equipment, but it’s still important to mention that they committed to continuing this since it means that Poland will serve as Ukraine’s repair shop for the indefinite future, one which is protected by the US’ nuclear umbrella. This state of affairs will enable Ukraine to continue fighting for as long as it wants to, potentially up to the last Ukrainian so to speak, and ensures that the conflict won’t end for some time absent a breakthrough.
* Poland Will Remain The Convergence Point For NATO-Ukrainian Cooperation
NATO-Ukrainian cooperation, which so incensed Russia that it was one of the reasons behind its special operation, will continue in Poland through the NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training and Education Centre in Bygdoszcz. This first-of-its-kind joint institution launched earlier in the year and testifies to Poland’s role in serving as the West’s gateway to Ukraine, which will ensure that Polish-Russian relations remain tense since no meaningful reconciliation is possible so long as this state of affairs is in place.
* The Polish & Ukrainian Military-Industrial Complexes Are Poised To Merge
It’s not declared outright, but reading between the lines indicates that the Polish and Ukrainian military-industrial complexes (MIC) are poised to merge after Poland committed to including Ukrainian companies in its supply chains and Ukraine committed to including Polish enterprises in its purchases. Additionally, some Polish MIC companies plan to locate production in Ukraine, which could serve as the pretext for a conventional military intervention if Russia destroys these facilities.
* Mutual Security Is Mentioned But No Polish Troops Are Committed
Unlike Ukraine’s earlier pacts with the UK and the US, its latest one with Poland explicitly mentions “enhancing their mutual security and complementarity of their military development processes”. Although Poland doesn’t commit to dispatch troops to Ukraine, just like neither the UK nor the US did, this exceptional language reaffirms the notion that they have a special and privileged partnership. It also implies that troops could indeed possibly be sent in the future on that basis under certain circumstances.
* Trilateral Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian Military Cooperation Is Reaffirmed
The pact states that the training of Ukrainian troops in Poland and other military forms of support to Kiev through the trilateral Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian Brigade (LITPOLUKRBRIG) will continue. This little-known framework symbolically represents the modern-day military revival of the erstwhile Commonwealth. Its existence also shows that Ukraine considers itself part of that civilization and not Russia’s, and this brigade could function as the tip of the spear if Poland conventionally intervenes there.
* Poland Will Assemble A ‘Ukrainian Legion’ & Encourage Refugees To Return To Fight
The abovementioned framework will be complemented by the participation of Ukrainian refugees in Poland and elsewhere in Europe in Polish-led training processes, while Warsaw will encourage others to return home to serve in their armed forces at Kiev’s request. Some EU countries might expel Ukrainian refugees back to Poland if they didn’t apply for refugee status there first, after which they’d either be coerced to join the ‘Ukrainian Legion’ or return home to fight right away without Polish training.
* Poland Is Officially Considering Intercepting Russian Missiles
Even though it was assessed last April that “It Would Be Surprising If Polish Patriot Systems Were Used To Protect Western Ukraine”, primarily because the Anglo-American Axis expressed their opposition to it, Poland is still officially considering that scenario as proven by their pact. The caveat though is that they’d have to “follow the necessary procedures agreed by the States and organisations involved”, thus leaving it up to NATO (and therefore its Anglo-American Axis leaders) to decide, who might still disagree.
———-
As can be seen, the Polish-Ukrainian security pact puts Ukraine on the path to becoming a Polish client state, the outcome of which is the US’ reward to Poland for replacing its conservative-nationalist government with a liberal-globalist one and then comprehensively subordinating itself to Germany. The emerging division of labor is that Germany will build “Fortress Europe”, Poland will lead “Project Ukraine”, and the US will “Lead From Behind” by supervising and assisting both when required.
