The FSB busted a branch of the Afghan-based ISIS-K terrorist cell on Thursday that was plotting to attack a Moscow synagogue, which could have triggered inter-religious discord had the attack not been thwarted. Russia is an historically cosmopolitan civilization-state whose people have a strong sense of national unity, but there’s always the chance that provocations of this kind could exacerbate preexisting divisions by lending false credence to Islamophobic radicals that want a so-called “Russia for Russians”.
The late Navalny had at one time embraced that toxic ideology, which is strictly suppressed by the security services per Article 282 of the Russian Criminal Code, but it regrettably continues to circulate among some fringe elements of society. Last October’s incident at the Makhachkala Airport in Russia’s autonomous Muslim-majority Republic of Dagestan, which readers can learn more about here if they hadn’t followed it at the time, threatened to breathe fresh life into this fascist movement.
The optics were such that it appeared as though some local Russian Muslims had embraced extremist views, the impression of which lent false credence to the previously mentioned Islamophobic radicals that want a so-called “Russia for Russians” by allowing the separation of its majority-Muslim regions. The authorities quickly clarified that foreign social media channels operated by intelligence agencies were responsible for manipulating these people, but some damage was still done to perceptions about them.
Had ISIS-K’s latest plot not been stopped, and Jews were slaughtered in their synagogue like some of the aforesaid manipulated locals implied an intent to slaughter rumored Jewish arrivals at the airport several months back, then reactionary Islamophobic sentiment could have spiked among some in society. The incident could also have upset Russia’s delicate Israeli-Hamas balancing act if Tel Aviv exploited it as the pretext to send lethal arms to Ukraine on the false basis that Moscow isn’t dong enough to protect Jews.
Unlike in late October, this thwarted attack in early March is connected with a foreign terrorist group, and it came less than two weeks after Defense Minister Shoigu warned about Afghan-emanating terrorist threats. ISIS-K had already bombed the Russian Embassy in Kabul in September 2022, but this month’s attempted attack in Moscow is the first time that it targeted that country’s soil directly, and it might not be the last time either.
Nevertheless, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid rebuked Shoigu by claiming that “Two and a half years of Taliban rule has proven that no threat from Afghanistan targets anyone”, but now he has egg on his face after the FSB claimed that the terrorists were linked to an Afghan-based ISIS-K cell. This shows that Afghanistan is still a safe haven for international terrorism despite the Taliban’s best efforts to stamp out these threats. If it wasn’t for America’s sanctions, then they might have been more successful.
Altogether, the takeaways from this incident are that: 1) continued US sanctions impede the Taliban’s anti-terrorist efforts; 2) which in turn lead to Afghanistan continuing to pose a threat to everyone; 3) ISIS-K is now refocusing on Russia; and 4) it’s planning attacks that are designed to maximally trigger inter-religious discord; but 5) the latest was stopped due to the FSB’s diligence. Looking forward, more threats are expected to materialize, and those that aren’t stopped might have an outsized political impact.
