Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declared that Russia “is ready to do everything in its power” to help the US and Iran “resolve all problems through negotiations”, which was then followed by Putin’s foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov revealing that Russia and the US agreed to hold talks on Iran in the future. Their remarks came in response to Bloomberg reporting that Trump relayed this request to Putin directly during their call in mid-February and that their representatives then discussed it in Riyadh shortly after.
The larger context concerns the nascent Russian–US “New Détente” brought about by Trump’s foreign policy revolution, the Iranian dimension of which was touched upon by Newsweek last week here, where it was correctly predicted that Russia will try to help the US and Iran patch up their differences. Russia’s motives are to reciprocate the US’ assistance in resolving the Ukrainian Conflict, avert a potential hot war along its southern periphery, and redirect the US military’s focus further away from its borders.
To that end, given the mutual trust between Russia and Iran as proven by mid-January’s updated strategic partnership pact, Putin and his representatives are in a prime position to explain Trump’s revolutionary foreign policy to their counterparts and convince them to enter talks in good faith. They can also share their experiences engaging with his administration so as to increase the odds of any prospective US-Iranian talks succeeding and leading to their own mutually beneficial “New Détente”.
For as close as Russia is with Iran, however, it’s also on good terms with Israel too in contrast to the false perceptions that have proliferated about their ties over the years. “Russia Dodged A Bullet By Wisely Choosing Not To Ally With The Now-Defeated Resistance Axis” during the latest regional war, for which it was just rewarded by Israel reportedly lobbying the US to let Russia keep its bases in Syria. Israel is therefore likely pleased that the US asked Russia to mediate between it and Iran since Bibi trusts Putin.
Some Israeli elite and media might loudly oppose this development, but that’s only because they’re liberal-globalists who are ideologically aligned with their senior American counterparts and accordingly always oppose Russia and Bibi no matter what. They’re powerless to drive a wedge between Russia and the US, not to mention between Russia and Iran, so the upcoming Russian-mediated US-Iranian talks will likely proceed without any external interference and might thus be more successful than some expect.
It’s also important to point out that Russia invited Israel to attend its Victory Day parade at Red Square on May 9 so Bibi will probably meet with Putin around that time for a detailed briefing about this. The Russia leader is expected to explain his interests in wanting to broker an Iranian-US “New Détente”, which apart from the previously mentioned three, include the need to maintain transit along the North-South Transport Corridor with India as well as execute their energy plans that can be read about here.
Their top obstacle is Trump’s reinstated “maximum pressure” policy against Iran, which relevantly involves the threat of secondary sanctions against third countries like India, ergo the need for Russia to mediate an Iranian-US “New Détente” in order to ensure the abovementioned projects’ viability. As for Trump’s motives, he wants to reach a comprehensive agreement with Iran that could then facilitate his planned “Pivot (back) to Asia” for more muscularly containing China, which Putin can help him with.
The US’ goals are to get Iran to agree to a new nuclear deal, curtail its ballistic missile program, and distance itself from the “Resistance Axis” in exchange for phased sanctions relief, all of which can alleviate Israel and Saudi Arabia’s security concerns so as to reduce the chances of another regional war. Trump can’t fully focus on China as long as that Damocles’ sword continues hanging over his head, but he also has no realistic possibility of convincing Iran to agree to his terms without Putin’s help.
To be sure, the US is asking for quite a lot from Iran and it’ll be a bitter pill for President Masoud Pezeshkian to swallow if he agrees to even part of what’s being demanded, but his country’s greatly weakened regional position after the latest West Asian War improves the likelihood that he might do so. He could also be incentivized by the hypothetical possibility of either allowing US energy companies back into Iran under strict conditions and/or forming a “gas OPEC” with Russia, the US, and maybe also Qatar.
From Israel’s perspective, it might not approve of any partnership between Iran and the US no matter what form it takes, but this could also create leverage for the US to ensure Iranian compliance with whatever deal they agree to under pain of it withdrawing as punishment if this doesn’t happen. If Iran’s economic interests became partially dependent on the US, whether directly via investments and/or indirectly via sanctions relief for instance, then it’ll be more inclined to abide by any deal.
If an Iranian-US “New Détente” follows the nascent Russian-US one, brokered as it might be by Putin as a reciprocal favor to Trump for everything that he’s now boldly doing, then this would completely transform Western Eurasian geopolitics and consequently unlock exciting geo-economic opportunities. These complementary outcomes could herald a new era in International Relations that would accelerate the global systemic transition to multipolarity and therefore be to the objective benefit of everyone.
