Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s latest interview with RT saw him claim that Israel and Ukraine are alike in that they both want to spark major regional wars. The English summary can be read here while his full comments in Russian can be read here. Many in the Alt-Media Community believe that Russia is secretly allied with the Iranian-led Resistance Axis against Israel and might thus interpret his latest remarks as lending credence to their theory, but the following analyses rely on facts to disprove that:
* 31 December 2023: “Clarifying Lavrov’s Comparison Of The Latest Israeli-Hamas War To Russia’s Special Operation”
* 22 April 2024: “Was Pepe Escobar Duped By A Foreign Spy Agency Into Spreading Fake News About Russia & Israel?”
* 3 July 2024: “Israel Should Think Twice Before Sending Some Of Its Patriots To Ukraine Via The US”
* 1 August 2024: “Medvedev’s Hawkish Tweet After Haniyeh’s Assassination Doesn’t Reflect Russian Policy”
* 4 August 2024: “There Might Be Some Truth To Reports Of Emergency Russian Military Assistance To Iran”
To oversimplify the insight shared above, Russia has consistently backed a two-state solution in line with relevant UNSC Resolutions. It also supports Israel’s UN-enshrined right to defend itself, including from terrorist attacks, but condemns its exploitation thereof to collectively punish the Palestinians. To this day, Russia never shot at attacking Israeli jets over Syria, nor let Syria use the S-300s to that end. It might have sent Iran emergency air defense systems for deterrence purposes, however, but no offensive arms.
Readers should also remember that Russia hasn’t even symbolically designated Israel as an “unfriendly country” despite comparatively less significant ones like Portugal being branded with this scarlet letter. Although Israel has voted against Russia at the UN and criticized it during that global body’s meetings, it still refuses to follow the West’s sanctions regime or arm Ukraine. Likewise, although Russia votes against Israel there and criticizes it too, it hasn’t transferred offensive arms to the Resistance Axis.
As can be seen, a modus vivendi remains in place between Israel and Russia whereby each has thus far agreed not to cross the other’s red lines since they fear the regional consequences of provoking their counterpart to do the same, but they nevertheless still publicly criticize each other. The point though is that their sharp rhetoric disguises this quid pro quo, which objectively exists to some of their respective supporters’ consternation, who want them to take a much harder line towards their counterpart.
Russia won’t be the first to do so since it sincerely wants peace in West Asia and envisages itself mediating the creation of a new regional order, no matter how unlikely that might seem at the moment, ergo why it continues balancing between Israel and the Resistance Axis as explained. Israel has also rebuffed immense American pressure upon it to arm Ukraine, thus suggesting that it sincerely fears Russia arming the Resistance Axis in response, which could greatly disrupt the balance of power.
The preceding paragraphs help observers understand the context of Lavrov’s comparison, which they should also know was shared in response to being asked about the possibility of a regional war, not as a preplanned point that he intended to make. Reviewing his full remarks, it becomes clear that he only sought to convey that some Israeli hardliners want to militarily resolve all their regional problems in a way that risks a larger conflict, but Iran and the Resistance Axis won’t succumb to these provocations.
Lavrov also implied that the West doesn’t want a regional war there either after adding that the US, France, and other EU countries called on Iran not to respond to Israel’s assassination of Hamas’ political leader Haniyeh in Tehran, thus suggesting that they too fear an uncontrollable escalation. He then called out their hypocrisy for denying Iran its UN-enshrined right to self-defense while always supporting Israel’s, which he said is aimed at getting Iran to accept even more egregious provocations in the future.
It was here where he then drew his comparison to Ukraine, which is carrying out similarly egregious provocations against Russia with the intent of provoking an overwhelming response that could in turn spark a major regional war, with its invasion of Kursk being the example there he used. Others that come to mind are its bombings of the Kremlin, strategic airfields, nuclear power plants, and the Crimean Bridge, all of which were intended to elicit a reaction that could then lead to a hot NATO-Russian war.
This analysis here from late last month explained why nobody should expect a radical response from Russia to Ukraine’s NATO-backed invasion of its universally recognized territory, which boils down to Putin’s fear of inadvertently triggering the Third World War that he’s worked so hard to avoid till now. Ukraine’s intentions are described differently from Israel’s by Lavrov, though, since he says the first wants the Americans and other NATO members to fight for it but doesn’t claim the same about the second.
Rather, upon rereading his full remarks that were hyperlinked to in the introduction of this analysis, it compellingly appears as though he’s implying that Israel could spark a major regional war by miscalculation instead of design unlike Ukraine. This interpretation accounts for why he ended his answer to that question by mentioning the need to implement relevant UNSC Resolutions on Palestine, which reaffirms his belief that the two-state solution is still realistic and could avert a major regional war.
Lavrov is calling on Israel to exercise restraint after going too far defending itself from Gaza-emanating threats before tensions spiral out of control, while Ukraine is implied to have no restraint after becoming desperate to expand the conflict that its patrons provoked as a ploy to avoid military defeat. Accordingly, it’s suggested that Israel can prevent a major regional war if it finally behaves responsibly, while it’s up to Ukraine’s patrons to see to it that this is prevented in Europe after their proxy got too out of control.
All that being the case, only a superficial reading of Lavrov’s comparison of Israel and Ukraine as regional warmongers would lead one to conclude that Russia has either secretly been against Israel all along or might have just drastically changed its policy to that end. The reality is that Russia has never been against Israel in the sense that many in the Alt-Media Community imagine. Its Foreign Minister’s latest remarks also imply key differences between Israeli and Ukrainian warmongering.
For as sharp as his latest rhetoric about Israel is, observers shouldn’t be deceived into thinking that it’ll precede any change of policy like even just symbolically designating it as an “unfriendly country”. Whatever sharp rhetoric Israel might spew in response also shouldn’t deceive observers into thinking that it’ll precede any change of policy on its part either such as finally going through with arming Ukraine. The fact is that modus vivendi remains in their relations and is unlikely to end anytime soon.
