Respected Pakistani academic Imtiaz Gul, who heads the Islamabad-based Center for Research and Security Studies, published a piece at the Express Tribune wondering “What’s Russia up to?” in Afghanistan. He posited that Russia’s rapprochement with the Taliban might be “targeting the United States and Pakistan – partners in the anti-Soviet jihad – because the two are now so close that Moscow sees Islamabad as more of a facilitator of Washington’s regional agenda than a neutral partner”.
Gul then cited Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent praise of the Taliban’s anti-terrorist operations against ISIS-K, which clashed with Pakistani Special Representative for Afghanistan Mohammad Sadiq’s accusations that it backs terrorists. Both figures shared their respectively polar opposite views at early October’s eighth Moscow Format Consultations on Afghanistan. While there hasn’t (at least yet?) been any political fallout, this dispute fueled Pakistani trolls’ new infowar on Russia.
He concluded by asking the following questions: “Are Moscow and Kabul signaling to the United States and Pakistan that if they back the alleged anti-Kabul groups, Russia can also step in to help fend off that threat? Is the Russian claim that Pakistan supplied ammunition to Ukraine also a driver behind Moscow’s recalibration? It perhaps now brackets Pakistan with the pro Ukraine alliance led by US-Europe.” Here are some background briefings on the broader subject before responding to Gul’s article:
* 3 October: “Is India Financing The Taliban’s Reported Purchase Of Belarusian Drones?”
* 5 October: “Russia & Pakistan Have Polar Opposite Views On Taliban-Led Afghanistan”
* 6 October: “What’s The Future Of Russian-Afghan Military Cooperation?”
* 6 October: “Is Pakistan Waging An Infowar On Russia Over Its Ties With The Taliban?”
* 6 October: “How Might Russia’s Threat Perception Of Pakistan Change If It Arms Ukraine?”
* 7 October: “Clarifying Seven Important Points About Russia’s South Asian Policy”
* 8 October: “Russia Hinted At What An Afghan-Pakistani De-Escalation Agreement Could Look Like”
* 9 October: “The Taliban Isn’t Entirely Wrong About Pakistan”
* 9 October: “Five Thoughts About Pakistan’s Rapid Mission Creep In The Yemeni War”
* 10 October: “Fact Check: Pakistan Didn’t Dissolve The USSR”
To summarize, the fake news about India financing the Taliban’s purchase of Belarusian drones with Russia’s approval was exploited as the pretext for initiating what appears to have been a preplanned Pakistani infowar on Russia driven by two possible motives. It’s either to precondition the public for Pakistan arming Ukraine and/or to distract from the opposition’s march on Islamabad and/or Pakistan’s rapid mission creep in the Yemeni War. The jury is still out about which one it is, if not all three.
As for the facts, Russia’s alleged arming of the Taliban (whether directly or indirectly) remains the realm of speculation, but Russia believes that the Taliban is the most potent force for preventing ISIS-K’s expansion into Central Asia. Russia might therefore arm the Taliban for this reason. Russia also signaled over the past year as highlighted here, here, and here that Pakistan is facilitating the flow of arms and terrorists to ISIS-K as well as the possible return of Western military infrastructure to the region.
Even if Pakistan convinces Russia that this isn’t the case, which his unlikely considering how plausible it is as explained above, Russia would still remain close to the Taliban due to their shared interests vis-à-vis ISIS-K. Circling back to Gul, hopefully he’ll become aware of Russia’s actual policy on the subject and recalibrate his analysis on it accordingly. A chill in bilateral ties might be inevitable, and it could last for some time, but experts like him could help prevent the tangible deterioration of relations as a result.
