Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced last week that parts of his region along the Ukrainian border will be locked down until further notice. An ultra-strict security regime will be imposed for residents’ safety in response to incessant shelling and the continual threat to more cross-border terrorist raids. This comes a little more than two months since Russia began to carve out a “buffer zone” in Ukraine’s neighboring Kharkov Region. Here’s what TASS reported about the new measures:
“Only adult men will be allowed to enter the areas, provided they drive an armored vehicle equipped with electronic warfare systems, wear bulletproof vests and helmets, and are accompanied by service members or municipal officials. The restrictions will apply to settlements in five borderline municipalities. Checkpoints equipped with modular shelters will be set up on the way to these areas. Public transport, including taxis, will be banned from entering the settlements.”
This was a difficult but necessary decision, and it admittedly carries with it the very uncomfortable optics of appearing to be a “buffer zone” on Russian territory, but this development was to be expected so long as cross-border threats remain. It can even be argued in hindsight that this was long overdue considering the intensity of the threats that residents have faced for over a year already. The reason why it wasn’t done sooner is probably due to the aforesaid optics and the disruption of people’s lives.
Regarding the first, Russia’s responsibility is to its people, not foreign public opinion. As for the second, their lives have already been disrupted for a while already. Nevertheless, this decision was only just made now, which might also suggest that Russia expects the threats to become even worse and that’s why it finally decided to impose this ultra-strict security regime. The timing also coincides with Ukraine receiving more of the US’ long-delayed aid package and similar support from other NATO countries.
With this possibility in mind, it can’t be ruled out that an unprecedented cross-border bombing campaign might be in the cards as a way for Ukraine to show the West that it’s getting its money’s worth. More terrorist raids could occur as well, thus turning parts of Belgorod Region into a stereotypical warzone, hence the need to implement the recent measures in order to not be caught off guard. Russia might also be preparing for retaliatory action in Kharkov Region under the cover of this new regime.
Whatever ends up happening, everything will likely get worse in Belgorod Region before it gets better, which Russia’s supporters should brace themselves for in order to not have any false expectations that lead to disappointment and thus make them susceptible to “doom-and-gloom” narratives. The conflict’s military-strategic dynamics still favor Russia, but the West doesn’t want Ukraine to go down without a fight, even if that includes continuing to kill civilians across the border like it’s been doing for over a year.
