French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu claimed in an interview that Russia is his country’s “greatest threat” apart from terrorist groups. He pointed to its “aggressive” actions over the past year, “not only to our interests in Africa, but also directly to our Armed Forces”. Lecornu also accused Russia of “waging an information war” and “militarizing new environments, including the seabed and cyberspace.” The reality is that Russia does pose a threat to France, but only to its hegemony, not to its legitimate interests.
Russia’s African policy, which readers can learn more about here, seeks to accelerate multipolar processes there. This has taken the form of supporting the former French colonies of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, not only bilaterally, but also multilaterally with regard to their newly formed Sahelian Alliance and Confederation. Their patriotic military leaderships envisage reducing their outsized dependence on France by relying more on Russia in order to regain as much of their lost sovereignty as possible.
In tangible terms, this has seen them replace France with Russia as their preferred anti-terrorist partner, with some speculating that the immediate quid pro quo is privileged Russian access to their resources. The short-term goal is to restore stability, after which the medium-term one of further disengaging from the French “sphere of influence” can more confidently be pursued, ideally by introducing a new regional currency to replace the CFA Franc that Paris continues to exploit for enriching itself at their expense.
These two developments threaten French hegemony since the first impedes its efforts to divide-and-rule these countries while the second has traditionally been responsible for buoying its economy. Taken together, Russia’s support of these multipolar processes does indeed deal a heavy blow to French interests, but once again, only to its hegemonic interests and not its legitimate ones. France can’t acknowledge the way in which Russia threatens it in Africa since the dark truth makes it look very bad.
It won’t go down without a fight, however, which is why it’s waging a proxy war on Russia in Mali together with the US and Ukraine through their patronage of Tuareg separatists and Islamist groups. Other battlefronts could be opened against the Sahelian Alliance/Confederation such as if Franco-American forces in the Ivory Coast try to destabilize southern Mali and Burkina Faso. Jihadist violence in the latter, which is already approaching critical proportions, could also soon worsen with their support.
France isn’t just playing defense since it’s also going on the strategic offensive against Russia in the South Caucasus through its efforts to accelerate Armenia’s pro-Western pivot. The ultra-nationalist Armenian diaspora that it hosts has played a crucial role in this process. France is also selling military equipment to Armenia too in order to exacerbate Russia’s suspicions of its intentions. Close Russian-Azerbaijani ties and impressively pragmatic Russian-Georgian ones put a check on the West’s plans though.
If they ever were to succeed, they’d pose a direct threat to Russia’s legitimate interests by provoking a major conflict along its southern periphery, thus making France’s meddling in the South Caucasus much more threatening in an objective sense than Russia’s support of multipolar processes in West Africa. The same goes for the other strategic offensive that France has gone on against Russia since losing its “sphere of influence” in the Sahel by signaling interest in conventionally intervening in Ukraine.
French President Emmanuel Macron, whose spree of foreign policy mistakes was analyzed here, has since toned down his rhetoric but nevertheless still isn’t ruling out such a scenario. The reason why this is so dangerous to flirt with is because it could lead to the outbreak of conventional NATO-Russian hostilities in Ukraine that might escalate into World War III by miscalculation. France knows the enormity of what’s at stake but it’s still recklessly considering this course of action as revenge against Russia.
Reviewing the insight that was shared thus far, Russia’s support of multipolar processes in West Africa has dealt a heavy blow to French hegemony there, which France has responded to by waging a proxy war on Russia in Mali while going on the strategic offensive in the South Caucasus and Eastern Europe. Therefore, it’s not Russia that’s the “greatest threat” to France, but France that’s a “great threat” to Russia and the world in general due to the havoc that it’s wreaking in three separate regions out of spite.
