US Special Envoy on Ukraine Keith Kellogg told Fox Business that “We are talking about a ‘resilience force’… This involves the British, French, as well as Germans, and now the Poles, who will place forces west of the Dnipro River, which means they are beyond Russia’s reach”. Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz and Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski rebuked him on X, however, reminding everyone that Poland repeatedly declared that it has no such plans. Here are five background briefings:
* 15 December 2024: “Poland’s Participation In Any Ukrainian Peacekeeping Mission Could Lead To World War III”
* 29 December 2024: “Five Reasons For Poland Not To Directly Participate In Any Ukrainian Peacekeeping Mission”
* 30 January 2025: “Poland Won’t Send Troops To Belarus Or Ukraine Without Trump’s Approval”
* 20 February 2025: “Poland’s Refusal To Dispatch Peacekeepers To Ukraine Imperils European Warmongers’ Plans”
* 21 February 2025: “The Polish Defense Minister Told Europe To Prioritize Ukraine’s Reconstruction Over Peacekeepers”
To summarize, Poland fears being manipulated into doing the heavy lifting in any such peacekeeping operation, which could make its forces the top target for both Russian strikes and ultra-nationalist Ukrainian terrorist attacks. It’ll facilitate others’ operations in Ukraine, including from the Rzeszow logistics hub that the US withdrew from in April, which is now operated by the Europeans and still used by the US, but it’s reluctant to stick its neck out and risk being left in the lurch if the going gets tough.
Nevertheless, some speculate that the ruling liberal-globalist coalition might reverse its stance on this sensitive issue if its candidate wins the upcoming presidential election to replace the outgoing (very imperfect) conservative incumbent. The first round will be held on Sunday while the second will take place on 1 June if needed. Three recent moves detailed in the following briefings suggest that Poland might soon obtain more tangible strategic stakes in Ukraine that could lead to mission creep:
* 16 April 2025: “Evaluating Poland’s Informal Proposal To Lease Land & Ports From Ukraine”
* 23 April 2025: “The Political Implications Of Poland Explicitly Planning To Profit From Ukraine”
* 6 May 2025: “Ukraine Unexpectedly Invited Poland To Help Rebuild Its Maritime Sector”
It should also be mentioned that the latest scandal surrounding the conservative presidential candidate, which involves a questionable apartment arrangement between himself and a senior citizen but didn’t prevent him from obtaining security clearances for 16 years, might not be all that it seems. Some suspect that it was timed by the ruling coalition in collusion with corrupt members of the security services to ruin his appeal among his party’s elderly base and thus help his liberal-globalist rival win.
Considering the geopolitical context, the aforesaid scenario might have just as much to do with Poland sending troops to Ukraine after the election as with domestic politics since the President and Prime Minister must both agree to the deployment of their country’s forces abroad. If the conservative wins, then he might obstruct the liberal-globalist premier’s speculative plans, whether for partisan or principled reasons, but an allied president could foreseeably go along with them, if they exist, that is.
Therein lies the question since no observer can say for certain whether Kellogg let the cat out of the bag about Poland’s reported plans to send troops to Ukraine after the election if the liberal-globalist candidate wins or if he simply slipped up and got confused about exactly what was discussed. In any case, the authority with which he made his remark as Trump’s Special Envoy on Ukraine lends credence to speculation about the ruling coalition’s post-election geopolitical plans, which might help their rival.
86% of Poles oppose sending troops to Ukraine so it’s possible that Kellogg’s comment could tip the scales against the liberal-globalist frontrunner if more voters believe what this American government representative said over their own Defense and Foreign Ministers’ rebuke of him. There’s also a chance that some might be led to believe that Kellogg lied about Poland’s plans as a “plausibly deniable” form of “meddling” in support of the conservative and thus double down on support for the liberal-globalist.
It might also ultimately be a non-issue, but that won’t be known until after the exit polls conducted during the first round of voting on Sunday, which will shed more insight into voters’ priorities. For the time being, the jury is out on whether Poland is really planning to send troops to Ukraine, but it would be understandable in hindsight if this happens sometime after the scenario of a liberal-globalist victory. Poland wants influence and profits in Ukraine, but it’s unclear how far it’ll go to obtain and secure them.
