Practically every Pakistani media outlet and political influencer is at the very least criticizing Russia right now, and some are also trolling it, after the latest Moscow Format Consultations on Afghanistan revealed their polar opposite views on the Taliban that were highlighted here. Unsubstantiated claims that Russia is already arming the Taliban or at least approving its ally Belarus’ sales to it, including with the intent of waging a proxy war on Pakistan like some have either suggested or declared, are driving this trend.
The objectively existing reality as was clarified here is that Russia is reluctant to arm the Taliban for fear that its equipment will be used against Pakistan and/or transferred to terrorist-designated groups for the same purpose at the cost of ruining the hard-earned Russian-Pakistani rapprochement of recent years. In the scenario that Russia arms the Taliban during its hostilities with Pakistan, whether with lethal or non-lethal arms (such as surveillance drones), then it would speak to its very high threat assessment of ISIS-K.
Russia considers that group to be a direct threat after spring 2024’s Crocus City Hall terrorist attack and an indirect threat too due to its potential to destabilize Russia’s Central Asian allies, which could lead to instability spilling across the Kazakh border into Russia or radicalizing potentially at-risk migrants. In fact, Russia became the first and thus far only country in the world to recognize the Taliban’s return to power largely for the purpose of fostering anti-terrorist cooperation against ISIS-K, which can take many forms.
No evidence has emerged of arms transfers, however, with their military-technical deal earlier this spring only officially concerning the repair of Russian equipment. In fact, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations hasn’t even held a press conference on such rumors to at least allege that they’re true, let alone present supposed evidence (even if it’s a Ukrainian-captured Russian drone dishonestly presented as a Taliban one or operated by one of its terrorist-designated allies in Pakistan). That speaks volumes.
While exceptions exist, much of Pakistani media and many influencers based inside the country are nowadays under the sway or even clandestine control of what’s known as The Establishment, which refers to the powerful military and intelligence communities. This power structure facilitated April 2022’s post-modern coup against former multipolar Prime Minister Imran Khan, who’s now languishing in prison on politicized charges, after which Pakistan became an unofficial military dictatorship.
That being the case, the likelihood of so many of them randomly being misled by unsubstantiated reports into criticizing, trolling, and even outright lying about Russia due to false perceptions of its policy towards the undeclared Afghan-Pakistani war and the question of arms sales to the Taliban is very low. Rather, what arguably appears to be happening is an information warfare operation against Russia by Establishment-approved Pakistani media and influencers, perhaps ahead of a major policy shift.
This could potentially be the declaration that Pakistan will arm Ukraine on the false pretext of “taking revenge” on Russia for supposedly arming the Taliban against it or the possibly impending emergence of evidence that Pakistan has already been quietly doing so despite Russia assessing last year that it wasn’t. It might also just be “psychological pressure” aimed at “deterring” Russia from arming the Taliban. In any case, it’s extremely unfriendly, and hopefully it soon ends before it further harms people-to-people ties.
