Indo-Bangladeshi ties have worsened since the latter’s US-backed regime change in August, which led to an explosion in anti-Hindu violence that some consider to be a pogrom. The latest development concerned Bangladesh’s arrest of a Hindu monk for sedition after he was accused of disrespecting the national flag. This prompted India to officially express concern and wonder why the perpetrators of the aforesaid anti-Hindu violence remain at large, thus eliciting a strong reaction from Bangladesh.
This war of words basically boils down to India implying that Bangladesh’s new Islamist-influenced ruling clique is turning a blind eye to anti-Hindu violence for demagogic reasons while Bangladesh is implying that India is behaving hegemonically by meddling in its internal affairs. Objectively speaking, India has the right to be concerned about the spate of attacks against Hindus in this neighboring nation, while Bangladesh should prioritize stopping this violence over cracking down on a single dissident monk.
With this in mind, it compellingly appears as though Bangladesh is trying to bait India by letting this violence continue unabated while making a show out of arresting that religious minority figure, perhaps already having an escalation sequence in mind that it plans to employ after India makes the first move. Shortly after August’s regime change, Bangladesh ridiculously accused India of being responsible for its latest floods, though that didn’t provoke the hoped-for overreaction that Dhaka expected from Delhi.
This analysis here from that time argued that Bangladesh is looking for a pretext from India in order to once again host separatists and possibly give the US the naval base that former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina warned that it was trying to coerce from her shortly before she was overthrown. Going through with either dramatic move without the artificially manufactured perception that India placed Bangladesh in the position where it “felt that it had no choice” could expose the new ruling clique’s real agenda.
They were placed into power with American backing precisely because they’re expected to promulgate policies adversarial to India’s interests, thus enabling the US to exploit Bangladesh as a Hybrid War proxy against India as punishment for its refusal to distance itself from Russia. The US fears India’s astronomical rise over the nearly past three years as a globally significant Great Power and therefore hopes to weaponize Bangladesh to keep India in check like it earlier weaponized Ukraine vis-à-vis Russia.
The double standards on display regarding the US’ refusal to condemn the new ruling Bangladeshi clique’s blatant violations of democratic standards and human rights shows that it’s making notable exceptions to its traditional soft power policy in pursuit of the abovementioned strategic goals. This approach might change during Trump 2.0 given his team’s Indophilic disposition, but only if they can successfully counteract the influence of those “deep state” members who are behind this policy.
That’ll be easier said than done since Trump is known for being manipulatable so it’s possible that these same members might convince him that perpetuating his predecessor’s policy is supposedly in the US’ best interests. This might be done by claiming that it could pressure India into agreeing to lopsided terms on the trade deal that they’ve been negotiating for years already. It could also be spun as a means for coercing India into siding more with the US against China at the expense of its own best interests.
All in all, what’s happening right now in Bangladesh bodes ill for the future of its relations with India, but none of this would be happening had the new ruling clique not been given a de facto blank check by the US to do whatever it wants for the purpose of provoking India. Therefore, the only way that this will stop is if India convinces the US that this policy isn’t in its best interests, though Trump still might not be swayed so India should prepare for the worst just in case.
