The radical faction of the recently divided “Tigray People’s Liberation Front” (TPLF), which was the dominant member of Ethiopia’s ruling coalition till 2018 before sparking the Northern Conflict against the federal government from 2020-2022, declared the start of a new war on Wednesday. This follows their inclusion in a newly announced rebel alliance organized by Eritrea, which is backed by Ethiopia’s historical Egyptian rival, and referred to as “Tsimdo” by Ethiopia. Here are five thoughts about this:
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1. The US Is Surprisingly Against The TPLF This Time Around
The US was sympathetic to the TPLF during the 2020-2022 Northern Conflict, which led to suspicions that it was intended in part as a Hybrid War on Ethiopia aimed at “Bosnifying” Ethiopia for divide-and-rule purposes, but this time the US Embassy and House Foreign Affairs Committee were critical. Talk is cheap, so it remains to be seen whether words will translate into actions that punish the TPLF and their Eritrean-Egyptian backers or engineer a political solution to this conflict, but neither can be ruled out.
2. Eritrea & Egypt Are Going For The Geopolitical Kill
Eritrea was Ethiopia’s ally the last time around since they were in a rapprochement back then and the TPLF was their shared adversary even though that group was aided by Eritrea’s Egyptian ally back then. Eritrea and Egypt are now on the same side of the latest Northern Conflict, however, which could see them subordinate Ethiopia one and for all if their new proxy alliance comes to power. That dark scenario, which is nevertheless unlikely, would geopolitically kill Ethiopia by eliminating its functional sovereignty.
3. Israel & The UAE Have Serious Stakes In Ethiopia’s Victory
Egypt isn’t the only non-regional player with serious stakes in the outcome of this conflict, albeit Ethiopia’s defeat in Cairo’s case, as Israel and the UAE have similarly serious stakes in Ethiopia’s victory. Israel fears that Egypt could become a formidable geopolitical adversary if it economically exploits a defeated Ethiopia to the hilt while Ethiopia is arguably the UAE’s top ally in Africa. Both might therefore intervene, whether discreetly through aid to Ethiopia or formally in some way, if the conflict escalates.
4. Several Regional Conflicts Risk Merging Into A Mega One
The latest Northern Conflict isn’t occurring in a vacuum. Sudan is in the midst of an intense civil war in which several states (Egypt, Turkiye, and the UAE) are increasingly involved, South Sudan is on the precipice of another civil war, Somalia is still a mess, and nearby Yemen’s over-decade-long civil-international war recently escalated. If the latest Northern Conflict also escalates, then all these conflicts risk merging into a mega one, which could also lead to another conventional Ethiopian-Eritrean War too.
5. Will The US Diplomatically Intervene?
The US’ recent dialogue with Eritrea and latest decision to let the sanctions against it lapse imbue Washington with the chance to broker a last-minute deal between Asmara and Addis to avert the mega-conflict scenario above. Creative diplomacy, such as the proposal that was floated here in spring with the intent of stimulating a conversation among all three sides and then ideally between them, is the need of the hour. Absent an urgent political solution, the worst-case scenarios risk becoming more likely.
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The latest Northern Conflict in Ethiopia has much higher stakes than the previous one due to the synergy between Eritrea and Egypt this time around, the assessment that they’re going for the geopolitical kill against Ethiopia, and the possibility that it could merge with other regional conflicts into a mega one. If urgent (likely US-mediated) diplomacy can’t avert an escalation, then a swift Ethiopian victory might avert the worst-case scenarios, otherwise they’d risk ruining the lives of millions in the broader region.
