Polish President Andrzej Duda declared that his country “will need to intervene immediately and bring in experts” should Russia attack Ukraine’s nuclear power plants (NPP) in Rivne and Khmelnitsky Regions. This follows his Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski proposing in early September that Poland should protect these facilities, which was analyzed here, and coincides with Zelensky fearmongering about such Russian attacks. These developments are unfolding amidst the Donbass front’s deterioration.
Russia continues to approach the pivotal city of Pokrovsk, whose capture could be a game-changer as explained here, and even the hawkish Czech President has begun talking about how Ukraine must accept that some of the territory that it claims as its own will “temporarily” remain under Russian control. The British Armed Forces Minister also recently complained about their country’s “threadbare” stockpiles after it already sent everything it could spare to Ukraine. Everything is looking very bad for Kiev.
Instead of seizing the moment to negotiate a ceasefire for averting the front’s collapse, however, the West is considering the serious escalation of allowing Ukraine to use its long-range arms for striking deep inside of Russia. Their calculation is that it’s better to “escalate to de-escalate” on more of the West’s terms than to accept a ceasefire that would be on more of Russia’s terms. This is dangerous though since it could provoke nuclear retaliation from Russia under certain circumstances as explained here.
Even if the West holds back out of fear of the aforesaid scenario, then it might still go through with what’s shaping up to be the backup plan of a false flag provocation at a Ukrainian NPP in order to serve as the pretext for dispatching their conventional forces into the country. Duda and Zelensky seem to be colluding to this end as suggested by their complementary rhetoric over the past week, which could serve to salvage some of the West’s geopolitical project if Russia achieves a military breakthrough.
Although Sikorski told a Russian prankster earlier this year who duped him into thinking that he was former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko that Prime Minister Donald Tusk has no interest in sending troops to Ukraine, he nevertheless added the caveat that this could change if the front collapses. Seeing as how the latter is becoming a distinct possibility as was already shown in this analysis, Poland’s military-strategic calculations might have therefore changed in the intervening months.
At the same time, other NATO members might not be on board with this plan, and it remains unclear whether the US would authorize a Polish-led conventional intervention in Ukraine regardless of the pretext. Russia might strike the incoming uniformed forces, thus leading to Poland pleading with the US to activate Article 5, which the US would feel pressured to do on pain of losing face. If it complies, then a Cuban-like brinksmanship crisis with Russia would follow, which risks spiraling out of control.
Few in the West want that to happen, both at the civil society and elite levels alike, but they might still feel obligated to go along with it if the pretext is that Poland is leading Europe’s response to what Ukraine claims is a major Russian attack against its NPPs in Rivne and Khmelnitsky Regions. Duda and Zelensky could go through with this provocation unilaterally, but they’d risk the US leaving them out to hang if it’s caught off guard, so they might not make a move without prior approval.
The hawks within the US’ permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) might want this done before the election to get voters to rally around Kamala or right after if Trump wins in order to ruin his peace efforts. Their comparatively more pragmatic rivals might not think that it’s worth the risks, however, in which case the US might hang Poland, Ukraine, and their hawkish “deep state” patrons out to dry even at the expense of their own reputation if they still dare to attempt it.
At present, comparatively more pragmatic forces are still calling the shots within the US’ “deep state” as proven by them always telegraphing every escalation in this conflict in order for Russia to prepare itself and accordingly reduce the likelihood of “overreacting” in ways that could lead to World War III. They also continue refraining from crossing Russia’s ultimate red lines of directly attacking it or Belarus or relying on Ukraine to carry out a large-scale conventional strike against them by proxy.
The US’ “deep state” balance could change though, and it’s concerns about this that motivated Putin to explicitly confirm what was self-evident about his country’s nuclear doctrine as explained in the earlier hyperlinked analysis about Ukraine using Western long-range weapons. It’s also possible that the comparatively more pragmatic faction could be pressured into going along with supporting Poland and Ukraine if they carry out their provocation without approval after being put up to it by the hawks.
For these reasons, it’s not possible to predict whether or not this backup plan will be implemented. All that’s known is that Duda and Zelensky compellingly appear to be cooking up a false flag provocation at a Ukrainian NPP as suggested by their latest rhetoric and the specific context in which it was spewed. It’s anyone’s guess how everything would play out if that happens since Putin has signaled that he’s finally losing his patience with the West so it’s possible that a Cuban-like brinksmanship crisis would follow.
