It was recently announced that Indian External Affairs Minister (EAM) Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will soon visit Moscow, which comes in place of the annual Russia-India Summit every December that was postponed yet again for the second time in a row due to scheduling conflicts. People aware of his plans told the Economic Times that he’ll “review bilateral strategic agreements across sectors, including defence, energy and trade, currencies, connectivity initiatives and Indian investments in far-east Russia.”
All of that is undoubtedly important, but three subjects will arguably take precedence on his agenda. These are the upcoming elections in Bangladesh, connectivity, and grand strategy. In the order that they were shared, the first concerns Russia’s warning that the US is plotting a Color Revolution, which came several months after India reportedly pushed back against American meddling there. Any instability in their shared strategic partner could spill over into India and create difficulties for next spring’s elections.
As for the second, the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC), Eastern Maritime Corridor (EMC, previously referred to as the Vladivostok-Chennai Maritime Corridor or VCMC), and the Northern Sea Route (NSR) are the three megaprojects at the center of their joint Eurasian connectivity vision. Properly optimizing them will enable Russia and India to further scale their real-sector bilateral trade with a view towards helping Delhi bridge its imbalance with Moscow per Ambassador Denis Alipov’s suggestion.
Finally, the third subject involves the search for the next “big idea” in Russia-India relations, which highly esteemed Valdai Club expert Andrey Sushentsov encouraged them to do in late October. This analysis here argues why the tri-multipolarity concept should be seriously considered for that role. Whatever they ultimately decide upon, it should be taken for granted that EAM Jaishankar and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will discuss the next “big idea” in their bilateral relations during their talks.
The global systemic context within which those two top diplomats will soon meet concerns the incipient Sino-US thaw that followed last month’s Xi-Biden Summit and the subsequent trouble in Indo-US ties caused by their dispute over America’s hosting of a Delhi–designated terrorist–separatist. The end result of these potentially interconnected developments is that bi-multipolarity (“G2”/“Chimerica”) is making a comeback at the expense of continuing the transition towards complex multipolarity (“multiplexity”).
If this re-emerging trend isn’t soon offset – whether through the natural deterioration of Sino-US ties, provocations by one side’s conservative-nationalist policymaking faction aimed at artificially manufacturing a crisis, or the improvement of Indo-US ties – then many stakeholders will lose out. Returning to the previously fleeting bi-multipolar moment, but this time for a much longer duration, could place serious structural constraints on the exercise of other states’ sovereignty.
Since the aforementioned three most likely variables for offsetting this scenario can’t be taken for granted, it therefore follows that the dual Indo-Russo leaders of the tri-multipolarity processes that are midwifing multiplexity will discuss further joint actions aimed at maintaining the systemic transition. This shared grand strategic imperative doesn’t imply that Russia is against China or that India is against the US, but just that both have reasons to prevent the return of bi-multipolarity and the power to thwart it.
To that end, they must most immediately ensure that India’s domestic security isn’t adversely impacted by the Color Revolution that the US is reportedly plotting in Bangladesh, after which their next objective is to optimize their three Eurasian connectivity corridors for scaling and diversifying bilateral trade. If the first is successfully accomplished and tangible progress is made on the second, then the third one aimed at advancing tri-multipolarity processes would become much easier.
The logic is that the US-driven destabilization of Bangladesh is partially motivated by the interests that America’s liberal–globalist policymaking faction have in punishing India for defying Western sanctions on Russia, impeding Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s re-election, and reshaping his civilization-state. These interconnected threats must therefore be counteracted right away in order to preserve one of the two pillars upon which tri-multipolarity is built, namely Prime Minister Modi’s strong and sovereign India.
Optimistically assuming success on this front, which is a credible enough scenario considering the vast means at India’s disposal to help stabilize Bangladesh with Russian backing after the US’ impending regime change operation, it makes sense for their top diplomats to discuss the second subject too. All indications show that Prime Minister Modi and his BJP will win spring’s elections so EAM Jaishankar will surely take the opportunity during his trip to discuss India and Russia’s joint Eurasian connectivity vision.
Even if the incipient Sino-US thaw picks up where those two’s New Détente plans abruptly ended after February’s balloon incident, then the combination of ensuring India’s domestic security in the face of US-instigated Hybrid War threats and expanded Indo-Russo connectivity can keep tri-multipolarity on track. In the event that the aforesaid trend is offset for whatever reason, then the achievements that are jointly made on both can further accelerate the systemic transition in this direction, thus making it a win-win.
Just like India wants to balance between Russia and the US, so too does Russia want to balance between China and India, with this coordinated Indo-Russo interplay being at the core of the presently unfolding global processes due to those two’s complementary system-shaping capabilities. No other country, pair, or group thereof comes anywhere close to what India and Russia can do in this respect, which is why it falls on them to keep tri-multipolarity on track during EAM Jaishankar’s trip at this historic moment.
