The Regional Council of Western Ukraine’s Lvov Region, the cradle of its ultra-nationalist movement, voted to commemorate 2027 as the year of the “Ukrainian Insurgent Army” (UPA) and its Commander-in-Chief Roman Shukhevich. He and his organization were among the culprits of the World War II-era Volhynia Genocide that resulted in the slaughter of over 100,000 Poles. Zelensky named an elite commando unit after the UPA earlier this year at the cost of sparking a political crisis with Poland.
While Poland’s ruling liberal coalition repaired ties with Ukraine after conservative President Karol Nawrocki revoked their country’s highest honor from him in response, they briefly hardened their rhetoric towards it for electioneering reasons, and they’re now doing so once more. Prime Minister Donald Tusk condemned the resolution as “suicidal”, Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski banned the official who proposed it, and Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz called the move unacceptable.
This response aligns with Poles’ newfound polarization over Ukraine since Zelensky’s abovementioned provocation that’s expected to remain the new normal till at least fall 2027’s next Sejm elections. At the same time, Deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Bosacki claimed to have received assurances from Zelensky’s team that Kiev won’t recognize the Lvov Region’s resolution, which coincided with deputy head of Zelensky’s office Irina Vereshchuk calling on the regional authorities to “act with pragmatism”.
Even if Kiev doesn’t recognize the Lvov Region’s decision to commemorate 2027 as the year of the UPA and Shukhevich for the sake of not further roiling bilateral relations, especially after Vereshchuk reminded everyone of Ukraine’s military logistics dependence on Poland, the damage is already done. Locals can still independently commemorate the year in that way, as can local ultra-nationalist militias and associated organizations, which Kiev won’t dare pressure for fear of an ultra-nationalist uprising.
Likewise, the ruling liberal coalition’s condemnation of this decision is similarly superficial so long as Ukraine’s military logistics through Poland remains intact, which Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk confirmed is the case amidst reports that Poland suspended an arms shipment in protest. As was assessed over the summer, “Poland Could Quickly Denazify Ukraine Without Firing A Single Shot, But Tusk Refuses To Do So” because he lacks the political will to defy the US and especially Germany.
There might not be a better time to do so than now as Trump signals his interest in radically disengaging from the Ukrainian Conflict. If Tusk were to then cut Ukraine off till Zelensky agrees to resolve all historical and political disputes in Poland’s favor, such as those related to the Volhynia Genocide and the state-level glorification of its culprits, then his coalition would have a decent chance of remaining in power after fall 2027’s next Sejm elections. He either doesn’t realize it, lacks the will, or doesn’t care.
The ruling liberals’ superficial response to the latest ultra-nationalist scandal that’s roiling relations with Ukraine therefore probably won’t boost their standing among voters any more than their recent “Russophrenic” episode that reverberated across Europe over the past half-year. That is to say, it won’t make a positive difference, and it might even backfire. Voters want tangible results from them, not drama, and their latest condemnation of Kiev isn’t convincing in its sincerity either.
