The Ukrainian Prosecutor General revealed on Monday that the SBU foiled an alleged J6-like plot to seize power in Kiev the day prior by orchestrating a protest that would deliberately descend into a riot whose participants, including military personnel and PMCs, would then storm the Rada. Zelensky has been fearmongering since November about a so-called “Maidan 3” that he claimed was being organized by Russia against him so it’s very likely that he’ll spin this latest development as proof of that supposed plot.
It serves his political interests to discredit the possibility that this was a truly homegrown regime change attempt which might even potentially be tied to disgruntled members of the military irrespective of whether they have any connection with former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny. He used to be Zelensky’s chief rival before being replaced and designated as the new Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK and was of the opinion that it had become impossible to attain Zelensky’s maximalist objectives in the conflict.
Observers should also remember that Zelensky’s term expired in late May so he’s illegitimate due to the compelling legal argument made by President Putin last month that the Speaker of the Rada is now the head of state if the Ukrainian Constitution is still being followed. Moreover, there’s a lot of anger over the country’s forcible conscription measures that have ramped up due to Russia’s fresh push in Ukraine’s Kharkov Region in early May, so genuine anti-government sentiment veritably exists nowadays.
It therefore can’t be ruled out that this was indeed the work of bonafide domestic dissidents with no relationship whatsoever to Russia despite whatever Kiev might claim. Lying about that country’s alleged connection to the conspirators serves the dual purpose of justifying further crackdowns on society while reminding the West of the supposed “Russian threat” ahead of next week’s NATO Summit in an attempt to pressure them into extending more meaningful support for Ukraine.
The timing with which everything just unfolded is also worthy of further examination keeping in mind that upcoming event. According to the Prosecutor General, the culprits began disseminating anti-government messages on social media in May and continued doing so into June, which was what presumably attracted the state’s attention. It can thus be surmised that the authorities were aware of everything about this plot from its early stages and that it accordingly never posed a credible threat.
The reason why it wasn’t busted right away could have been to identify the full extent of their plans and expose everyone else within this network in order to take them all down at once. That’s sensible enough, but there might have also been an ulterior motive at play too, namely to make sure that this story circulates in the run-up to the NATO Summit for Zelensky’s previously mentioned self-interested political reasons instead of prematurely introducing it into the global information ecosystem weeks in advance.
Moreover, seeing as how Ukraine has reportedly begun a military buildup along the Belarusian border, it’s possible that Kiev planned to make this J6-like news public around the same time in order to exploit predictable allegations of Russian involvement in the plot as the pretext for the aforesaid measures. In that way, this move could then be spun as “defensive” even though it’s arguably predicated on at least conveying an intent to threaten Russia’s mutual defense ally, the purpose of which was explained here.
Putting it all together, it appears as though the conspirators are homegrown dissidents without any ties to Russia, though they might have some connections to disgruntled members of the military. The authorities knew about their plans early on but declined to bust them right away since they wanted to obtain more information. The ulterior motive was to have this story coincide with the latest Belarusian tensions and the upcoming NATO Summit, however, thus possibly presaging more Western escalations.
