Iran’s retaliation against Israel is being heatedly debated on social media between those who believe that it was a dud and those who think that it left the self-professed Jewish State dumbfounded. Amidst this debate, Duma member Dmitry Belik – whose claim to fame was helping Sevastopol reunify with Russia when he briefly served as the region’s acting head in spring 2014 – described last weekend’s event as a “beautiful theatrical production” according to publicly financed Russian international media RIA.
He speculated that there was “A simple ‘agreement’, because high-ranking political figures should not ignore some actions of unfriendly countries, therefore, they have to respond.” Belik then added that “there are no photos or video evidence on the Internet” to back up claims of Iran having supposedly inflicted serious damage on Israel’s military bases. He then concluded that “Everything we see now…is a planned scenario of ‘revenge’.”
The introduction of this interpretation into the global information ecosystem coincided with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian revealing that “We [Iranian authorities] notified the neighboring countries [about the start of the attack on Israel] 72 hours before the attack.” This development lent credence to Belik’s theory about Saturday night’s strikes simply being a “beautiful theatrical production” brought about by an “agreement” to stage this “planned scenario of ‘revenge’.”
There’s a logic to his speculation too since it could have been responsibly aimed at managing the Iranian-Israeli security dilemma. According to this theory, Iran indirectly conveyed its intentions to the US despite American denials in order for Washington to ensure that Tel Aviv doesn’t overreact to the retaliation that Israel provoked by bombing Iran’s consulate in Damascus. That would explain why Biden reportedly told Bibi not to respond and said that the US won’t support offensive operations against Iran.
Not only is Belik a proven Russian patriot by virtue of the role that he played in Sevastopol’s reunification with Russia, but he’s also a member of the Duma’s International Affairs Committee, thus meaning that his motivations in sharing this theory are above any suspicions. Many members of the Alt-Media Community tend to attack anyone who questions Iran’s stated achievements, such as last weekend’s retaliation being a major military success, as “Zionists” or “foreign agents” but Belik isn’t either.
Those who might be triggered by Belik’s theory would do well to reflect more deeply upon it before reacting emotionally since it actually presents Iran in a very positive light. If there’s any truth to it, then this means that the Islamic Republic’s policymakers wanted to responsibly manage their country’s security dilemma with Israel, and the US interestingly enough agreed to it for the reasons explained here. Basically, a large-scale war would tank Biden’s re-election bid, thus leading to Trump’s return.
Nevertheless, that hyperlinked analysis also warns that Bibi is able to blackmail Biden by threatening to escalate tensions with Iran unless Israel obtains tangible concessions from the US, which could include an American military return to the region that could impede its “Pivot (back) to Asia” to contain China. Israel would have preferred for Iran not to retaliate for the bombing of its consulate in Damascus, hence why Bibi is furious with Biden for not coercing it into standing down after that happened.
Since the US wasn’t able to do so, its ruling Democrats don’t want a large-scale war for electoral reasons, and the Pentagon fears that it doesn’t have enough anti-air missiles to give Israel while still maintaining its minimum needs, the solution was to reach an “agreement” with Iran. Israel was assured that the US and its allies would help it shoot down incoming Iranian projectiles that Tehran promised would only target military bases but was told not to go on the offensive afterwards and to instead de-escalate.
In other words, Belik’s theory presupposes that Iranian strength has grown while American strength has declined, so much so that Tehran was able to launch unprecedented direct strikes against Israel without Washington deterring it with threats of disproportionate retaliation like would have been the case just a few years back. Instead, the US calculated that it was better to stage a “beautiful theatrical production” with Iran by coercing Israel into standing down right afterwards, which is a dramatic role reversal.
That’s not to say that Israel won’t respond sometime in the future, especially since Bibi has both personal and political reasons to do so unless he can obtain tangible concessions from the US in exchange for not ruining Biden’s re-election bid, but just that the state of play is disadvantageous to its interests at present. For these reasons, those members of the Alt-Media Community who reject Belik’s theory would do well to reconsider its merits since it actually presents Iran in a very positive light.
