Pakistan’s Express Tribune cited unnamed sources to report that Afghanistan’s General Directorate of Intelligence is plotting a provocation against Pakistan whereby it’s allegedly coerced detainees into falsely claiming that they’re members of ISIS-K who were trained in Pakistan. The dual purpose is supposedly to deflect from international pressure over the Taliban’s purported ties with terrorists while manipulating regional countries, including Russia, into thinking worse about Pakistan.
This report follows an identical claim by the popular “Pakistan Strategic Forum” X page, which played a leading role in Pakistani trolls’ ongoing infowar against Russia through its series of anti-Russian posts here, here, and here that signaled to their compatriots that it’s now acceptable for them to attack Russia. Seeing as how the Express Tribune is a reputable outlet, its sources are likely from the state, thus strongly suggesting that the “Pakistan Strategic Forum” X page is also state-connected as was suspected.
Having reasonably concluded that the Pakistani state is seeding this report about the Taliban’s supposedly impending anti-Pakistani provocation in social and legacy media alike, it’s now time to assess its veracity. While anything is hypothetically possible, it’s extraordinarily unlikely that the Taliban would try to manipulate Russia through such crude means, let alone that Russia would fall for it. That’s because Russia already suspects that Pakistan has ties with ISIS-K as documented here.
Moreover, the historic visit of Russia’s foreign spy chief to Kabul in early October wouldn’t have happened if the Kremlin truly believed that the Taliban has ties with terrorists; rather, it’s widely believed to presage Russia’s potential arming of the Taliban against ISIS-K, which might even occur very soon. Such arms could also be used against the armed groups that Pakistan is reportedly backing as part of its latest proxy war on Afghanistan since this conflict risks destabilizing Russia’s Central Asian allies.
Putin is expected to request clarification about Pakistan’s ties with ISIS-K and other anti-Taliban groups during Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit in late November or early December. “Russia Is Beginning To Conceptualize Central Asia & South Asia As The CASA Macroregion”, and as the preceding analysis argues, it might also perceive Pakistan as being the greatest obstacle to CASA integration, so genuine admissions by Afghan detainees of being Pakistani-trained ISIS-K members could reinforce this notion.
Therefore, instead of such admissions being a psy-op by the Taliban, the reports that the Pakistani state seeded in social and legacy media might be the actual psy-op aimed at muddying the waters about its suspected ties with ISIS-K, meddling in Russian-Afghan ties, and keeping Sharif’s trip to Moscow on track. It might very well be the case that Pakistan discovered that genuine admissions will soon be publicized by Afghanistan and sought to preempt the political damage through false reports that it’s just a psy-op.
Be that as it may, Russia is sincere about expanding relations with Pakistan despite its suspected ties with ISIS-K just like it expanded relations with Turkiye despite its documented ties with the original ISIS, so Russia won’t be the first to worsen relations with Pakistan. Pakistan therefore doesn’t have to worry about Russia calling off Sharif’s trip if more evidence soon emerges of Pakistan’s ties with ISIS-K. Pakistan’s latest suspected psy-op, however, might leave a negative impression among some in Russia.
