The London-based Afghanistan International recently reported that India is financing the Taliban’s purchase of Belarusian drones. German-based journalist Jamshid Yama Amiri, who worked with various private and government media organizations in Afghanistan during the US occupation, wrote the article about this that was published on their website while former Voice of America journalist Samsama Sirat made a report on their YouTube channel. These details are enough to treat this claim with skepticism.
The larger context concerns the resumption of cross-border attacks between Afghanistan and Pakistan as part of their war that began in late February as well as the US’ negotiations with Belarus over what Trump recently described as a “massive” potash deal. Most Afghan diaspora media are also opposed to the Taliban and speculated to be funded either by wealthy anti-Taliban Afghans and/or Western governments. It’s therefore possible that this report is a hit piece to discredit all of the alleged parties.
Be that as it may, there’s nevertheless a certain logic that makes it believable, namely the convergence of foreign interests involved. Afghanistan clinched a military-technical deal with Russia this spring over the repair of Russian-made equipment, Belarus is embedded in Russia’s military-industrial complex by dint of being its top military ally, and India is Pakistan’s rival. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also warned over the summer that Western arms and ammo are being sent by Ukraine to ISIS-K in Afghanistan.
The only realistic way through which they could be smuggled to Afghanistan is through Pakistan, which is currently at war with Afghanistan, and this insight reaffirms Russia’s latent threat perception of Pakistan. It therefore can’t be ruled out that India is financing the Taliban’s reported purchase of Belarusian drones with Russia’s approval as part of a joint clandestine operation driven by Delhi’s rivalry with Islamabad, Moscow’s growing threat perception of it, and their shared concerns about ISIS-K.
At the same time, the timing is too suspicious as was earlier touched upon and the same can be said about the outlet that broke the story, so this report should be treated with skepticism instead of being taken for granted as true. It only just began to circulate, so it’ll be interesting to see whether it’s picked up by the Western Mainstream Media, not to mention if any Western governments exploit it as the pretext to threaten more sanctions against Afghanistan, Belarus, and/or Russia, let alone actually do so.
Pakistan will certainly take note of this report, if it wasn’t already somehow involved in it, even if officials don’t publicly comment on its claims due to their sensitivity. While one might expect them to not miss an opportunity to discredit their Afghan and Indian rivals, they’re still keeping up the charade of partnering with Russia, which has yet to tangibly manifest itself through a long-discussed energy deal due to the de facto veto power of Pakistan’s American patron. They might therefore tread carefully.
On the off chance that they present the wreckage of an allegedly Belarusian-produced drone in the event that they decide to abandon their charade with Russia, which is unlikely but can’t be discounted, then it can’t be ruled out that they received it from Ukraine in order to lend false credence to this claim. Absent official confirmation of this report from Afghanistan, Belarus, India, and/or Russia, it’ll therefore remain in the realm of speculation no matter how realistic some might believe that it is as explained.
