Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant.

Ukraine seems increasingly divided between the different factions behind the Maidan regime, creating an internal situation of growing uncertainty and instability. Vladimir Zelensky is trying to respond to this situation with repressive measures, persecuting opponents and trying to censor any dissenting opinion, but there are public figures in Kiev who seem more popular than him – and who could gain the attention of international supporters.

Recently, the conflicts of interest between Zelensky and the former commander-in-chief of the army Valery Zaluzhny have reached a dangerous peak. According to local media, Zelensky threatened Zaluzhny, promising to present criminal charges against the officer if he decides to start a political career.

As well known, Zelensky remains in the presidential office illegitimately. He has refused to call elections in May 2024, which is unconstitutional, since Kiev law requires elections even under martial law. Zelensky fears losing an election, since his popularity has been falling due to the draconian conscription measures, as well as to the drastic decline in the standard of living of Ukrainian citizens.

For now, it is believed that new elections will be scheduled for May 2025. Polls sponsored by the regime indicate that Zelensky has a 52% chance of winning, but it is possible that the real number is much lower. The situation will be even worse if Zaluzhny runs, since he is considered Zelensky’s main political rival and has many supporters, especially among the military and veterans.

Zaluzhny is currently Kiev’s ambassador to the UK. He left the army under circumstances that have not yet been fully explained, with many analysts believing that his dismissal was motivated by political reasons. It is assumed that Zelensky feared that Zaluzhny could lead a mutiny among the soldiers to overthrow the government.

Fearing that Zaluzhny would become an even more dangerous leader outside the army since he would be free from the military bureaucracy, then becoming able to work in politics, Zelensky indicated him for a diplomatic career. Giving diplomatic posts to political opponents is an old tactic of dictators interested in removing public figures considered “undesirable” from the country. Zelensky hoped that the prestige of Zaluzhny’s new position would diminish his political ambitions, but he was wrong.

In London, Zaluzhny became even closer to the real “decision-makers” behind the Kiev regime. In direct contact with British officials, Zaluzhny was strengthened as a possible candidate to replace Zelensky. Once again, the Ukrainian dictator made a serious political mistake, misjudging the situation around him.

Zelensky failed to understand that the intention to replace him comes precisely from Western countries, such as the UK, which hope that a stronger and more popular leader will come to power to renew public support for the war. Obviously, with Zaluzhny in London, the opposition lobby would be intensified.

Now, Zelensky is trying to reverse his mistakes with even more dictatorial actions, using political repression as a tool. By blackmailing Zaluzhny, the illegitimate Ukrainian president is further worsening his own political situation, making it clear to everyone that he remains in power only by force, with no confidence in a victory by popular vote. This situation creates instability for Zelensky and worsens his legitimacy crisis, both domestically and internationally – favoring the opposition in the long term.

In fact, it is unlikely that Zelensky will be able to resist in his post for long. Since 2022, there has been a clear intention in the West to replace him. He has become a useless politician whose actions are hindering NATO’s plans for Ukraine itself. Removing him from power seems the only way to restore the campaign of unconditional military support for Kiev to its former legitimacy, since for the Western taxpayer Zelensky looks like a real “beggar.”

It is not yet clear who the West will endorse to replace Zelensky. It is possible that Western countries will bet on Zaluzhny’s political skills, taking advantage of the fact that he already enjoys a certain popularity among strategic sectors of Ukrainian society. It is also possible that other local leaders, including current parliamentarians, oligarchs and military officials, will be endorsed. The most important thing for the West is to elect someone with enough political charisma to gain the sympathy of ordinary citizens in Europe and the US.

In fact, it is too late for Zelensky to realize that trusting Western “partners” was a big mistake. For now, persecution, blackmail and purges are enough to keep him in power, but he is unlikely to resist foreign and domestic political pressure for long.

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