The ceasefire that Melania Trump helped clinch in the frontline settlement of Alyoshki on the Russian side of the Dnieper River in Kherson Region is surprisingly holding. Russia always complied with all prior ceasefires, but Ukraine never did, instead exploiting them to rotate its troops, resupply the front, and then reinitiate hostilities with Russia from relatively more advantageous battlefield positions. The fact that Ukraine has thus far complied with the latest ceasefire therefore deserves some elaboration.
The overall context in which this ceasefire was agreed to is completely different than the others due to the escalating public feud between Trump and Zelensky, the mysterious Starlink/Starshield slowdown in early October, and the Russian-US diesel deal which demonstrated that US has the political will to clinch economic deals with Russia without any concessions by Russia towards Ukraine. All of this is importantly taking place amidst joint Russian-US efforts to build the post-war European security architecture.
For these reasons, there could be hell to pay if Ukraine significantly violates Melania’s ceasefire, which might prompt Trump into cutting Ukraine off from arms, intelligence, Starshield, etc. as punishment for humiliating his wife like he might claim that Zelensky had done in that scenario. Journalists from the Trump-friendly Newsmax channel are also on the ground observing the ceasefire, and they’re in contact with Melania, so she could immediately inform her husband if Ukraine violates her ceasefire.
Zelensky is therefore treading carefully, also keeping in mind that Ukraine’s derailment of the upcoming US-mediated trilateral talks with Russia could decisively rupture his ties with Trump, who envisages hosting a peace deal signing ceremony during December’s G20 at one of his properties in Miami. There’s no guarantee that’ll happen by then, but if Ukraine violated the Alyoshki ceasefire, then Putin could blame Zelensky for foiling Trump’s latest attempt to win the Nobel Peace Prize with all that could follow.
If the ceasefire holds, however, then it could prospectively be expanded to other frontline settlements if the political will exists on all three sides. Melania’s office might suggest doing so, and both Putin and Zelensky would be reluctant to reject it for fear of angering Trump. In that scenario, the model of US media-monitored ceasefires in local settlements could become the standard of a larger ceasefire’s first phase of implementation that could begin in the Kherson Region before expanding to others.
Kherson would be a realistic starting point for a larger ceasefire since the Dnieper serves as the Line of Control between Russia and Ukraine, therefore meaning that any ceasefire in that region would effectively be ceasing strikes across the river. If successful, then the next phase could see a maritime ceasefire for protecting Crimea, Odessa, and international shipping, the latter of which Ukraine exploits to smuggle arms into the country. Trump would consider it a victory if this were agreed to at the G20.
All in all, Ukraine’s surprising compliance with Melania’s Alyoshki ceasefire suggests that Trump has finally coerced Zelensky into his first concession thus far, which he can then build upon to extract more from him in order to swiftly end the conflict. The timeframe is speculative, but the writing is on the wall, and it reads that Trump is washing his hands of NATO’s proxy war on Russia through Ukraine in order to “Pivot (back) to (East) Asia” for more robustly containing China during his last two years in office.
