Nigeria arrested more than 90 protesters last week who were waving Russian flags while demonstrating against the rising cost of living and bad governance. The authorities alleged that unnamed “sponsors” were behind the unrest in a possible allusion to the Russian government, but that country’s embassy denied any involvement. Be that as it may, some observers are skeptical since Russian flags were waved during rallies in Burkina Faso, Mali, and neighboring Niger in support of their military-led governments.
Accordingly, they suspect that Russia might be trying to stir up trouble in Nigeria, which is a major oil producer and Africa’s most populous country. This speculation is partially driven by their tensions last year after Nigeria threatened to invade Niger, whose military authorities decisively pivoted their country away from the West and towards Russia. Here are some background briefings for those who either hadn’t followed that drama or forgot about it after everything else that’s happened since then:
* 31 July 2023: “The West Wants Nigeria To Invade Its Northern Neighbor”
* 31 July 2023: “A Former Nigerian Senator Shared 13 Reasons Why His Country Shouldn’t Invade Niger”
* 1 August 2023: “Al Jazeera & Politico Shed Light On The Real Reasons Why Nigeria Might Invade Niger”
* 3 August 2023: “None Of Nigeria’s Objective National Interests Are Served By Invading Niger”
* 30 January 2024: “Nigeria Is To Blame For The Sahelian Confederation’s Withdrawal From ECOWAS”
Relations surprisingly rebounded after their downturn last summer upon Nigeria’s Foreign Minister declaring late last year that his country wants to join BRICS and then traveling to Moscow for talks with his Russian counterpart in March. Both sides pledged to comprehensively expand their relations, and seeing as how the climax of the Nigerien Crisis passed without incident, there aren’t any realistic obstacles in implementing this to their mutual benefit.
The question therefore arises of why anti-government protesters would fly Russian flags if their countries’ ties have normalized since last summer’s low point. It might simply be the case that they want to signal support for the Multipolar World Order that Moscow is championing. Some might also hope to attract its attention in the hopes of receiving some financial and/or media benefit from it, while others might want to strike fear in their government by falsely implying Russian support for their movement.
Building upon the last-mentioned possibility, it could be that they expect that this could pressure the authorities into conceding to their demands, but that would be a misguided goal if it’s truly the case. The security services might instead feel more comfortable using disproportionate force against the protesters if they’re misled to believe that they’re foreign proxies and not innocent citizens. That appears to be what they’re considering in the name of national security after talking about unnamed “sponsors”.
Whatever their motives may be, the next question is where the protesters got their Russian flags in the first place. It’s here where three non-exclusive explanations come into play. The first one is that they were given by the Russian Embassy to locals who support its special operation and/or the Multipolar World Order that their country is championing. If that’s what happened, then the intent wasn’t to have these flags waved around at protests, but folks still had the freedom to do so if they wanted.
The second explanation is that the protesters bought them from local merchants, who might have been selling them due to the newfound regional interest in Russia as was earlier mentioned. And finally, the last explanation is that a Western government and/or affiliated locals passed them out, irrespective of whether they were masquerading as Russians, in order to artificially manufacture the narrative that Moscow is behind the protests. This scenario might sound far-fetched, but it can’t be discounted.
After all, the Russian-Nigerian rapprochement over the past year caught the West off guard and spoiled their plans to divide-and-rule those two. There’s no easier way to drive a wedge between them than to make it seem like Russia is backstabbing Nigeria by fomenting protests against the government. Once again, flying a foreign country’s flag isn’t proof that someone and/or their movement is backed by that foreign country, but many people still falsely believe that this is a “smoking gun”.
With these explanations in mind, both about why some of the protesters were waving Russian flags and where they might have gotten them in the first place, there’s no reason to suspect that their demonstrations are backed by Moscow. This was either a spontaneous decision or was encouraged by the West to maliciously implicate their rival in order to ruin its rapprochement with Nigeria, which they fear could have far-reaching implications for the Multipolar World Order if it succeeds.
