The Afghan Defense Ministry confirmed over the weekend that a high-level delegation from their country participated in Russia’s recent Center-2026 large-scale military drills. They focused on cutting-edge warfare with a heavy emphasis on drones and other automated equipment. Putin earlier visited the event to observe these exercises. News18 India, one of the country’s major outlets, wondered in an article about Afghanistan’s participation in these drills whether it’s meant as a message to Pakistan.
This development follows an unconfirmed report that India is financing the Taliban’s purchase of Belarusian drones with Russian approval several months after the Russian-Afghan military-technical agreement that officially only concerns the repair of Russian-made equipment. Whatever the truth may be, Pakistan is certainly watching the expansion of Russian-Afghan military-security ties very closely given its ongoing undeclared war with Afghanistan, which recently intensified after a several-month lull.
The scenario of the Taliban fielding sophisticated Russian drones and other equipment could raise the costs that it inflicts on Pakistan and possibly prompt Pakistan to escalate its strike campaign. About that possibility, one of the reasons behind Russia’s decision last year to become the first country to recognize the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan was arguably to coordinate more closely against ISIS-K, whose foreign recruits and military equipment can only realistically enter the country from Pakistan.
It’s therefore not impossible that the Taliban might receive drones and other equipment from Russia for anti-terrorist purposes, if they haven’t already, that they then turn against Pakistan instead. That could be a means through which the group tries to rebalance its military asymmetry with Pakistan, but it could backfire as warned above if Pakistan escalates its strike campaign in response. In any case, the salience is that visibly closer Russian-Afghan military cooperation suggests that this scenario isn’t impossible.
To be clear, Russia has no interest in waging a proxy war on Pakistan through the Taliban, and it would be a betrayal of their trust if the group either used Russian-supplied military equipment against Pakistan and/or transferred some of them to their “Pakistani Taliban” (TTP) allies. That’s because Russia is sincere about expanding ties with Pakistan, and especially one day clinching their long-discussed major oil deal, despite Pakistan reportedly arming Ukraine (which Russia’s Ambassador later denied that it had done).
Nevertheless, Pakistan might be influenced by its American patron into perceiving the Taliban’s hypothetical use of Russian drones and other equipment against it and/or their transfer to the TTP as part of a Russian-Indian plot, thus ruining their hard-earned rapprochement in recent years. Russia is likely aware of this possibility and might therefore proceed very carefully with its new military-technical cooperation with Afghanistan in order to reduce the risk of this dark scenario.
Be that as it may, the Taliban needs surveillance drones at the very least in order to improve its capabilities against ISIS-K, so they might soon be sold to it if that hasn’t already happened because they wouldn’t risk a rupture in ties with Pakistan if used against its forces. If Russia sells lethal arms to the Taliban amidst its war with Pakistan, however, then that would signal that Russia assesses the threat posed by ISIS-K to be serious enough to risk its ties with Pakistan if the Taliban uses them against it.
