Outgoing Polish President Andrzej Duda traveled to DC to meet with his close friend Trump on Saturday on the sidelines of this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). They only spent around 10 minutes together though in a very brief chat that made some wonder whether Duda’s trip was worth it. According to him, he received assurances from his American counterpart that he won’t pull US troops out of Poland, plus Trump gave Duda a shout-out during his keynote CPAC speech.
These outcomes didn’t require the Polish leader traveling all the way to DC for a 10-minute meeting, but his supporters claim that face-to-face diplomacy is priceless, especially amidst the nascent Russian-US “New Détente” and consequent uncertainties about Trump’s commitment to NATO. They also point to Duda being the first European leader to meet Trump during his second term and the contacts that he made at CPAC. All of these intangibles are important as Poland approaches May’s presidential election.
Trump’s buddy Musk has made no secret of his interest in promoting like-minded populist-nationalist European parties at the polls, which Vice President JD Vance defended in the face of European criticism during his keynote speech at the Munich Security Conference earlier this month. Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski of the ruling liberal-globalist coalition also warned last month about Musk meddling in the upcoming election, which he implied could favor Duda’s (very imperfect) conservative opposition party.
Trump’s close friendship with Duda together his and Musk’s preference for the outgoing Polish leader’s party make these concerns credible. Sikorski and Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s irresponsible past statements about Trump also cast a dark shadow over their ties. If their party’s candidate for president wins, then it’s possible that the political bond between Poland and the US will weaken, which could see Trump supporting a mildly nationalist Germany further subordinating Poland for ideological reasons.
As it stands, however, “Poland Is Once Again Poised To Become The US’ Top Partner In Europe” due to the ease with which the US could exploit Poland’s traditional role as a wedge between Germany and Russia. This imperative would be all the more important depending on how the nascent Russian-US “New Détente” unfolds but might ultimately be even more contingent on the formation of the next German government and the outcome of Poland’s presidential election in May as was mentioned above.
Observers should also be aware that “Like Trump, Polish conservatives fighting a stacked deck in election battle” as explained by the Washington Times in their preceding hyperlinked article from earlier this month. Accordingly, Musk’s possible endorsement of conservative presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki and perhaps some unofficial algorithmic boosts on X for his affiliated accounts could restore a sense of balance, thus increasing the odds that he beats liberal-globalist candidate Rafal Trzaskowski.
Duda also recently spoke to Zelensky and told him that “there is no other way to stop the bloodshed and achieve lasting peace in Ukraine except with the support of the United States”, to which end he should “remain committed to the course of calm and constructive cooperation with @POTUS Donald Trump.” His pressure on Zelensky to capitulate to whatever Trump demands of him on natural resources and peace with Russia follows those last two’s deteriorating ties over the past week that were detailed here.
Given Trump’s transactional diplomacy, especially at the interpersonal level, he might now be even more motivated than before to ask Musk to help even the electoral odds for Duda’s ally Nawrocki. With all this in mind, it can therefore be concluded that Duda’s trip to DC for his 10-minute meeting with Trump wasn’t for naught since it advanced partisan and national interests, the first of which will be put to the test ahead of May’s presidential election and the second right afterwards depending on the outcome.
