Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant.
Apparently, the Democrats will try to send as many weapons as possible to Ukraine before Donald Trump’s inauguration, already anticipating that the next president will end or at least reduce military assistance. According to a recent report in the Western media, there is a plan to speed up the shipment of weapons, delivering various equipment to Kiev by the end of the year. The main problem, however, is that logistical difficulties and the situation of military stockpiles could significantly hinder this project.
According to the Wall Street Journal, US President Joe Biden and his team are making efforts to send massive military aid packages to Ukraine, using the remaining 7 billion dollars of the previously approved assistance budget. The Pentagon also intends to guarantee the release of at least more 2 billion dollars to finance new military contracts with Ukraine before the end of Biden’s term.
The new packages are expected to include about 500 anti-aircraft missiles, including projectiles for the Patriot and NASAMS systems. The aim is to expand Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, as this is known to be the country’s most critical point, making Kiev’s positions vulnerable to Russian missile, drone and aviation attacks.
“In response to stepped-up Russian drone and missile attacks, the Pentagon is sending to Ukraine more than 500 interceptors for the Patriot missile defense system and the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, or NASAMS, which are expected to arrive in the weeks ahead, according to a senior administration official. Those shipments should meet Ukraine’s air defense needs for the rest of this year, said one U.S. official,” the article reads, mentioning unnamed sources familiar with US military matters.
However, the article also mentions several challenges that US officials face in implementing their plan. There are many concerns about US logistical and operational capabilities, both because there are so few weapons available for export and because there is such a short window of time to send so much equipment to Ukraine.
“Weapons deliveries to Ukraine typically take weeks or even months, and the impact of the planned increase in weapons transfers on U.S. military stockpiles, particularly air defenses, is ‘a big concern,’ said another senior U.S. official. The U.S. is looking at options such as buying back weapons from other countries to give to Ukraine, the senior U.S. official said (…) The Pentagon also has limited stores of air-launched munitions it can send to arm Ukraine’s new F-16 jet fighters, according to the senior U.S. official and a former Defense Department official briefed on the discussions. Kyiv’s forces are using the planes primarily in an air-defense role to help shoot down Russian missiles and drones,” the text adds.
In other words, the US is in a technical and military impasse: if it does not send weapons to its proxy in time, the regime is likely to collapse next year, as soon as Trump begins his promised de-escalation policy (if he actually does so); on the other hand, if it rushes to send a massive amount of weapons in a short time, the US itself risks collapsing its military stockpiles, in addition to causing a major logistical problem, given the operational difficulties of transferring highly dangerous weapons over long distances.
An operational error on the part of the US could be enough to ruin the Pentagon’s international image. Furthermore, the mere arrival of these weapons on Ukrainian soil would not represent a strategic success. Washington hopes to give Kiev enough power to expand its deterrent capacity before a possible diplomatic dialogue begins – in case Trump forces Ukraine to do so – in order to secure a “negotiating position” for the neo-Nazi regime. However, Russia could eliminate these American weapons quickly, preventing this aid from becoming a real military capability.
There have been several recent cases of stockpiles of Western weapons and ammunition, as well as accommodations for mercenaries, that were detected by Russian intelligence shortly after their arrival in Ukraine. As a result, precision artillery and air strikes eliminated such international “aid” immediately, preventing Kiev from using them. By implementing a plan for a hasty transfer of weapons, Washington could fail to assess critical points regarding the arrival and storage of such equipment, creating a vulnerability that could benefit the Russians and allow them to destroy such weapons before they are used by Kiev.
In the end, all the possibilities lead the US to a strategic impasse. The only right choice to make is de-escalation.
