The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry released a statement on Sunday warning about what it described as the “threat” posed by Belarus’ military buildup along the border, the motivations of which were analyzed here in early August. Belarusian President Lukashenko also drew attention last week to the whopping 120,000 Ukrainian troops that he claims were the first to deploy there. For reference, Belarus only has around 65,000 active soldiers, one-third of whom are stationed along the Ukrainian border.
Less than a week ago, a small Ukrainian force unsuccessfully tried to invade a tiny village in Russia’s Bryansk Region that’s only 30 kilometers from the Belarusian border. It was likely a probing attempt in hindsight, but any Kursk-like invasion along that front could risk impeding or even cutting off Russia’s military logistics to Belarus’ southeastern city of Gomel. That’s because there’s a nearby highway running between there and Bryansk’s eponymous capital just 30-50 kilometers inside of Russia from the border.
Ukraine might be gearing up to either attack Gomel (which is just 30 kilometers from the border) or at least threaten Russia’s military logistics to there from Bryansk judging by its Foreign Ministry’s statement, which the “Kyiv Independent” noted was the first about Belarus since last September. They ominously implied an ultimatum by writing that “we urge its armed forces to cease unfriendly actions and withdraw forces away from Ukraine’s state border to a distance greater than the firing range of Belarus’ systems.”
This was backed up by them reminding Belarus that “We warn that in case of a violation of Ukraine’s state border by Belarus, our state will take all necessary measures to exercise the right to self-defense guaranteed by the UN Charter. Consequently, all troop concentrations, military facilities, and supply routes in Belarus will become legitimate targets for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.” The stage is therefore set for opening up another front on this false pretext if Kiev has the political will to do so.
There are arguments for and against the five most likely scenarios. The first one is that Ukraine doesn’t invade either Gomel or Bryansk Regions, instead remaining content to continue sending drones across the former’s border and possibly continuing to carry out small-scale raids in the second. The advantage is that Ukraine wouldn’t further extend itself, but the disadvantage is that also wouldn’t further extend its adversaries either. This is the least risky scenario of the five.
As for the second scenario, Ukraine might provoke Belarus into initiating conventional hostilities or orchestrate a false flag to that end. Either could pressure the West into conventionally intervening like Italy’s La Repubblica newspaper reported that it would do if Belarus formally got involved in this conflict. Ukraine might desperately need the pressure relief that such an intervention could bring, but it might either be hung out to dry or the intervention could lead to tensions spiraling out of control.
The third, fourth, and fifth scenarios are similar in that Ukraine could either attack Gomel, Bryansk, or both. This would pose the same risks that the first one would avert with regards to either further extending its own forces and/or its adversaries’. It’s the most dramatic set of scenarios due to how much it would worsen the conflict, but that might be precisely what Ukraine wants if it believes that this could get the West to conventionally intervene in its support, thus implying that it’ll soon lose if they won’t.
Out of these five, while the first would arguably be the best, it appears to be the least likely. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry wouldn’t have made its first statement about Belarus in almost a year if it didn’t believe that this would bring it some sort of benefit, let alone ominously imply an ultimatum and then reaffirm its right to self-defense, which would be twisted to justify aggression in the event that it decides to attack Gomel and/or Bryansk. Something is cooking, and it doesn’t bode well for Belarus.
