Zelensky recently followed up his rejection of Putin’s Victory Day truce by warning that the foreign leaders who attend the parade on Red Square are putting themselves in danger. Although he claimed that this is supposedly because Russia might orchestrate a false flag attack against them to blame on Ukraine, Russia interpreted his words as implying that Ukraine might target its prestigious guests. That would be an unprecedented escalation if it happens and thus risk abruptly ending the peace process.
About that, US officials have held several rounds of meetings with their Russian and Ukrainian counterparts, but no tangible progress has been achieved so far. Ukraine repeatedly violated the 30-day “energy ceasefire” and the Easter truce but the US didn’t publicly chastise it for this. Worse still, Trump then speculated that Putin might be “tapping [him] along”, which preceded the US clinching its long-awaited minerals deal with Ukraine that was predicted would lead to more American weapons packages.
Right after it was signed, Trump green-lighted the export of $50 million of defense-related products to Ukraine through direct commercial sales, which preceded a $310.5 million F-16 support package. Around the same time, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reminded everyone that the US is considering moving on from the peace process due to nothing having been achieved by this point, which coincided with reports that the US is preparing more sanctions against Russia to pressure it into concessions to Ukraine.
These developments set the backdrop for Trump’s incredibly disappointing silence in the face of Zelensky’s Victory Day threat. He’s known for sounding off about all manner of things, from fringe issues to global events, yet he’s conspicuously silent about this. Zelensky’s claim that Trump “see[s] things a bit differently” after their latest meeting at the Vatican adds more context to his silence. It therefore appears as though Trump is falling under Zelensky’s spell despite February’s fight at the White House.
That’s not to suggest that Trump will soon start parroting Zelensky’s rhetoric against Putin, but just that it does indeed seem that Zelensky at the very least made Trump suspect that Putin is manipulating him. In response, the US and Ukraine clinched their long-awaited minerals deal, which contains a clause that forthcoming US aid to Ukraine can count towards the US’ contribution to their joint fund. Then the US green-lighted the aforementioned military aid packages and began drafting more anti-Russian sanctions.
The unmistakable message sent by these interconnected moves is that the US is preparing to resume its leading involvement in the conflict if Russia doesn’t soon agree to more concessions to Ukraine. Simultaneously, Russia’s official acknowledgement of North Korea’s military assistance in Kursk signals that its troops might participate in any potentially expanded ground offensive if peace talks collapse, which altogether shows that both are preparing for the possibility of an intensified proxy war in Ukraine.
That scenario could unfold as soon as next weekend if Zelensky makes good on his Victory Day threat that Trump didn’t even feel bothered to make a pretense of condemning, with his incredibly disappointing silence hinting at tacit approval of Ukraine targeting the Red Square parade this Friday. He might still mutter a half-hearted condemnation before then if prompted and/or post about it, but his conspicuous silence thus far might make Putin distrust him, which bodes ill for the future of their talks.
