Semafor cited two unnamed people familiar with the matter to exclusively report on Monday that Trump is considering having the US recognize Crimea as Russian and even pressure the UN to do the same as part of a larger agreement to end the Ukrainian Conflict. He’d lead the world by example if he made that bold move since the rest of the West and especially the Global South alike would feel more comfortable following in his footsteps since they’d no longer fear any consequences from the US.
To explain, the US would lift its own sanctions on Russia that were imposed in response to Crimea’s reunification with it in 2014, after which there would no longer be any pretext for threatening secondary ones against any company in the world that does business there. Russia could also make other countries’ access to this strategically located market contingent on them recognizing this ground reality as well, the intent of which they might signal in a future UNGA vote jointly sponsored by Russia and the US.
If Hungary, Slovakia, and other EU members took their cues from Trump even if the rest of the bloc still refused, then this could serve as the basis for them refusing to prolong Brussels’ sanctions against Russia, even if only in part. That would in turn widen intra-bloc divisions and possibly hamstring the EU’s effectiveness in this regard. The end result might be that the EU is either compelled to impose controversial unilateral measures to extend hybrid hostilities against Russia or finally change course.
There are also the military consequences of this scenario to consider too since the US would likely prohibit Ukraine from using its arms for attacks against Crimea in this event. It would also be adamantly against fellow NATO members giving Kiev the green light for such attacks as well. Any danger that they might pose to American lives (including its diplomats’ if a consulate is established) and investments there after this decision is made would predictably elicit a very harsh response and possibly even sanctions.
Trump might recognize Crimea as Russian not because he might think that it’s the right thing to do, but as a clever tactic for encouraging Russia to pragmatically compromise with Kiev. It’s important to point out that he isn’t considering recognizing Donbass, Kherson, or Zaporozhye as Russian, thus meaning that the US could retain the sanctions that it imposed on Russia after September 2022’s referenda, at least for now. He’d also likely let Ukraine use its and others’ arms to hit targets there if hostilities ever resumed.
While Russia might appreciate the goodwill gesture of recognizing Crimea as its own, going along with this could be spun as implying that Moscow tacitly considers its control over the other four formerly Ukrainian regions that joined Russia after their referenda to be less legitimate. To be clear, Russia officially regards the aforesaid as equal and integral parts of the country, but the optics of Russia agreeing to the US treating them separately from Crimea could still fuel speculation from bad actors.
The same could be said if Russia agrees to a ceasefire or armistice that doesn’t result in the full liberation of those four regions and thus perpetuates Ukraine’s continued occupation of them. In Russia’s defense, it can be argued that pragmatic compromises are required at this time to more effectively advance its maximum goals, albeit through diplomatic means instead of military ones for now at least. While some at home and abroad might still vehemently disagree with this, it’s ultimately Putin’s decision to make.
All things considered, the argument can be made that it’s better for Russia to reap the political, military, and economic benefits of the US leading the world by example in recognizing Crimea as Russian as part of a temporary compromise – however long it lasts – than to rebuff this game-changer. This would perpetuate Ukraine’s continued occupation of parts of Russia’s four other formerly Ukrainian regions, but it could also unlock a creative diplomatic opportunity for resolving this in Russia’s favor later on.
For background, although Russia constitutionally recognizes the entirety of those regions as its own after September 2022’s referenda, those behind the front lines on the Ukrainian side weren’t able to participate in it. Trump might therefore object to Putin’s demand that Ukraine withdraw from the entirety of those disputed territories and hand them over to Russia, but from Putin’s perspective, one of 2020’s constitutional amendments prohibits him from ceding even a centimeter of Russian territory.
Zelensky or whoever succeeds him would find themselves in a similar situation due to Article 73 of the Ukrainian Constitution mandating an All-Ukrainian referendum for altering the country’s territory. As a lifelong legalist who’s also read the Ukrainian Constitution so closely that he determined that the Rada Speaker should have already been recognized as the country’s legitimate leader after Zelensky’s term expired last May, Putin would be aware of this and the difficult constitutional amendment process too.
Both present serious obstacles to his maximum goal of universal recognition of the entirety of Russia’s new regions, especially from Kiev, yet a workaround could be devised whereby Russia and Ukraine retain their formal claims but agree to create a special political-economic zone there for now. This could recognize the status quo without endorsing it, allow for free movement between the two parts, and create a tax-free and highly subsidized subregion for facilitating the post-conflict resumption of trade.
Through these means, Donbass, Kherson, and Zaporozhye (collectively “Novorossiya”) could function as “bridges” for bringing not only Russia and Ukraine closer together, but also Russia and the US through Ukraine. Their final political status might not be settled anytime soon, if ever at all, though that might cynically be to Russia’s advantage since perpetuating this outstanding dispute could indefinitely keep Ukraine out of NATO. The bloc, after all, doesn’t accept applicants with unresolved territorial disputes.
Ukraine would therefore either remain indefinitely outside of NATO or would have to go through the complicated domestic legal process of officially ceding these lands to Russia, thus creating a dilemma wherein Russia’s strategically wins either way. Circling back to the present, everything described above could be set into motion by Trump boldly recognizing Crimea as Russian, which Russia would do well to agree to in exchange for pragmatic compromises with Ukraine due to how game-changing it would be.
