The Financial Times reported that “Two of the ideas were laid out in Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ‘victory plan’ with Trump specifically in mind”, with these being the proposal for Ukraine’s partners to extract its resource wealth and Ukraine’s offer to replace some US troops stationed in Europe. Trump probably really does appreciate these two points since they align with his interests. The first would help him recoup some of the US’ investment in Ukraine while the second could facilitate his “Pivot (back) to Asia”.
As a businessman, Trump doesn’t want his country to lose out on promising business opportunities in Ukraine after investing several hundred billion dollars there, hence why he’s unlikely to abandon his predecessor’s proxy war completely even though he’s much more likely to try to reach a deal. Senator Lindsey Graham estimated over the summer that Ukraine has $10-12 trillion worth of critical minerals under its soil. Even if it “only” has $1 trillion, then it’s still attractive enough to catch Trump’s attention.
Regarding the second proposal of Ukrainian troops replacing some US ones in Europe, this could free up some of the US’ estimated 100,000 troops for redeployment to the Asia-Pacific upon the end of the Ukrainian Conflict in order to more muscularly contain China like Trump envisages. Politico’s report from over the summer about his alleged plan for NATO calls for the bloc to take more responsibility for its defense, which could be advanced by Ukraine sending some troops to partner states in exchange for aid.
No matter what one thinks about their capabilities, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are still one of the largest in the world, plus they have invaluable battlefield experience fighting Russia. The latter trait makes them unlike any other in NATO, and they can share these experiences with partner states while replacing some of the US’ troops that might then be redeployed to the Asia-Pacific. All that Trump has to do to tap into these opportunities is to not completely abandon Ukraine.
It was never realistic that he’d do that anyhow since he authorized arms sales to it during his first term. That’s one of the “politically inconvenient” facts that Russiagate conspiracy theorists routinely ignore because it debunks their narrative that he was Putin’s puppet. In fact, it was some of these very same Javelin anti-tank missiles that he transferred to Ukraine which were used to impede the initial phase of Russia’s special operation, thus meaning that Ukraine might have lost early on had it not been for Trump.
It was recently explained here, here, and here that Trump is expected to “escalate to de-escalate” with Russia in order to get a better deal for the US, with the Financial Times’ report explaining what Trump wants from Ukraine in exchange for this risky policy. Putting it all together, considering that Trump might now be driven by very lucrative financial motives and the hope that Ukraine can facilitate the US’ “Pivot (back) to Asia”, whatever escalation he employs to this end probably wouldn’t be a bluff.
