Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Former President Donald Trump has galloped to an early lead in the endorsement sweepstakes—bigly, as he might say.
Some fans of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis worry that he hurt his chances because he had not yet declared his candidacy as of May 3. Many believe DeSantis would have entered the race sooner if not for Florida’s resign-to-run law, which lawmakers have worked to adjust, presumably to accommodate a DeSantis presidential run.
In the meantime, Trump has gobbled up endorsements like a political Pac-Man, even in DeSantis’ home state.
As of May 1, Trump counted 11 Florida congressmen in his corner, including Republican Reps. Matt Gaetz, Greg Steube, and rising star Byron Donalds, one of only two black Republicans in the House of Representatives.
In contrast, DeSantis snagged only Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Brandon).
Thus far, 49 House members—about one-fourth of the Republican total—have announced they’re supporting Trump, according to BallotPedia.org.
Also in the Trump column: 10 U.S. senators, plus the governors of West Virginia and South Carolina. So far, DeSantis remained scoreless in both of those categories.
If DeSantis does declare as expected, he will be playing a difficult, but not impossible, game of catch-up.
Predictive Power
These tallies matter because endorsements “have proven to be pretty predictive of who wins presidential nominating contests,” political gurus at FiveThirtyEight.com say.
Since 1972, endorsements have outperformed political polls as accurate predictors of presidential nominees, says the site, whose name derives from the total U.S. electoral college votes, 538.
According to the data, Trump currently has a total of 72 endorsements, DeSantis has 5, and former Vice President Mike Pence and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley both have 1.
Based on FiveThirtyEight’s unique scoring system, which gives more weight to prominent endorsers, Trump racked up 244 endorsement points as of May 1. The next-closest possible contender, DeSantis, trailed far behind with only 13 points.
Still, DeSantis and the other candidates have plenty of uncommitted endorsers to court. As of late April, only 11 percent of all possible endorsement points had been allotted in FiveThirtyEight’s analysis.
Because Trump is the front-runner in national polls, 2024 could be “the first incumbent-less Republican presidential primary since 2000” in which the pre-Iowa polling leader and the endorsement leader “are one and the same,” FiveThirtyEight reported.
This time around, Trump is scoring high-level endorsements much earlier than during his first presidential campaign. He had zero congressional and gubernatorial endorsements until after he had won three state primaries, FiveThirtyEight pointed out. Those endorsements came in February 2016, only nine months before the presidential election; the 2024 election is now about 18 months away.
Endorsements and polls aside, money, momentum, and messaging may matter more. And the power of being an incumbent leader also cannot be discounted—a factor on both sides during the 2024 presidential campaign.
2024 Cycle ‘Complicated’
Nonpartisan political analyst Nathan Gonzales, publisher of InsideElections.com, points out that President Joe Biden wields the power of the incumbency. But, in effect, so does Trump.
As the GOP’s two-time nominee, Trump remains the Republicans’ de facto leader.
“One of the complications to this cycle is that Biden and Trump are overshadowing the race in a way that is keeping so many people on the sidelines,” Gonzales said. “Typically, we would have a lot more candidates in on the Republican side than we do now.”
So far, six noteworthy Republicans have declared presidential runs, with few garnering elite endorsements.
Thus, the playing field is lopsided, tilted in favor of Biden on the Democrat side and in favor of Trump on the Republican side, Gonzales said.
Another factor: Gonzales said that Trump also commands “a larger-than-life” presence. His gravitas has remained unshakable, even in the face of his unprecedented criminal indictment.
And although outspoken never-Trumpers try to sabotage him, Trump is uplifted by hordes of forever-Trumpers—a fiercely loyal conservative base that GOP candidates cannot afford to alienate.
That’s why Republican politicians who are lukewarm on Trump or are secretly anti-Trump may not want to come out and endorse an opponent of his, Gonzales said. “They don’t want to anger Trump and lose an opportunity to gain his supporters,” he said.
Some Endorsers ‘Targeted’
Carol Swain, a former politics professor at Vanderbilt and Princeton universities, agrees that some endorsers are dragging their feet for that reason.
“The ones that made early endorsements of DeSantis, they may find themselves targeted and harassed for endorsing him over Donald Trump,” she told The Epoch Times.
She also believes it’s unwise to endorse early because, with many months to go in a political contest, smear campaigns and other unpredictable events may intervene and badly damage some candidates’ reputations and chances for victory.
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