Trump’s return to the White House is seen by India as an opportunity to repair the damage that Biden dealt to bilateral ties. Summer 2023’s alleged attempted assassination scandal, which readers can learn more about here, toxified their relations and was followed by American meddling in the latest Indian general elections. Bangladesh’s US-backed regime change several months ago was regarded by many Indians as a betrayal of their regional security interests. The US has also pressured India to dump Russia.
All of that might soon be water under the bridge if Trump brings Indian Americans and Indian-friendly officials with him back to Washington. This would be especially so if Kashyap Patel is confirmed as the next CIA chief like some have speculated that Trump is planning to propose. If the stars align, then the first order of business that India would want to have happen is for the US to crack down on Delhi-designated terrorists-separatists to the maximum extent that American law allows.
The state protection that Khalistani leaders like Gurpatwant Singh Pannun enjoy while they openly imply threats to bomb Indian airliners and assassinate its diplomats among other crimes has convinced many Indians that these figures and their movement are being wielded as Hybrid War weapons against India. Trump campaigned on a law-and-order platform whose principles are incompatible with these provocations so there are hopes that he’ll put a stop to them as the first step to repairing ties.
Next on India’s wish list is for the US to stop meddling in its domestic affairs. Criticism of its socio-political situation is seen as unfriendly, while the efforts of various NGOs to cultivate anti-state sentiment – especially in the Christian-populated Northeastern States – is considered absolutely unacceptable. Relations can never truly return to normal until these activities are ended. For that to happen, however, Trump must successfully rein in liberal-globalist elements of his “deep state”, which will be a challenge.
Moving along, India also wants the US to pressure the new Bangladeshi government into respecting the rights of the country’s Hindu minority, who’ve been victimized by pogroms and other forms of violence since summer’s regime change. Truly free and fair elections should also be held as soon as possible. Speculative plans for a US military facility there are also troubling due to how much this could disrupt the balance of power in the region. The US should therefore keep India’s legitimate concerns in mind.
Elsewhere on the regional front, India would appreciate the US once again treating it as its top partner instead of continuing to balance between it and Pakistan. The Biden Administration departed from the first Trump Administration’s Indo-centric regional policy partially due to its liberal-globalist ideological agenda that set it at odds with Modi’s conservative-nationalist government. His team also flirted with improving ties with China, and distancing the US from India to a degree was seen as a means to that end.
American pressure on India to dump Russia should also stop if Trump wants to improve bilateral ties. He recently pledged to “un-unite” Russia and China, who he claims had been forced together by Biden, so India could argue that letting Indo-Russo trade blossom helps achieve this goal by preemptively averting Russia’s potentially disproportionate dependence on China. Trump’s team is expected to follow a Kissingerian Great Power balancing strategy so this appeal to its global role might resonate with them.
And finally, although India entered into a rapprochement with China just several weeks ago that the US was inadvertently responsible for as explained here, it wouldn’t mind if Trump took a tougher stance on China than Biden and privileged India as a counterbalance to the People’s Republic. In pursuit of that, the US could continue exporting high-tech military equipment to India and ideally make progress on negotiating a free trade deal. The latter is easier said than done but should still figure on the agenda.
Altogether, the future looks bright for Indo-US ties so long as Indian Americans, Indian-friendly officials, and geopolitical pragmatists follow Trump into the White House, all of which is expected judging by the latest reports. In that case, the challenge will then be reining in liberal-globalist elements of the “deep state” in order to prevent them from subverting the Indo-US rapprochement, which would be greatly facilitated if the Guajarati-descended Trump loyalist Patel becomes the next CIA chief.
