Reports started circulating over the weekend on social media alleging that at least one Russian military transport plane capable of carrying heavy weapons had arrived in Iran, which was followed by claims that their cargo included air defense systems, electronic warfare ones, and even ballistic missiles. The first wouldn’t be anything new since Russia already supplied them previously, while the second is based off of a single image on social media and the third attributed to a report from NBC News.
The last-mentioned report doesn’t exist on their website though so it’s likely fake news, though the first two claims might have some truth to them for the reasons that’ll be explained. Before doing so, however, it’s important for the reader to understand Russia’s regional policy and “military diplomacy”. As regards the first, it seeks to balance between competing pairs of countries like Iran-Israel and Syria-Turkiye for example, while the latter relates to maintaining the balance of power between them.
Unlike what some top Alt-Media influencers falsely claim on social media, a few of whom were misled by Medvedev’s hawkish tweet after Haniyeh’s assassination while many others have ulterior motives, Russia doesn’t want a larger war to break out in West Asia. Its relations with Israel have impressively remained strong in spite of the ongoing conflict in Gaza, but Russia has also consistently defended the integrity of international law and thus regularly chides Israel for violating it and not recognizing a Palestinian State.
Nevertheless, these statements are never followed up by sanctions, let alone threatening to officially designate Israel as an “unfriendly country” – which would be a costless and purely symbolic move in any case – like it already did with less significant ones like Portugal. The Kremlin’s calculations could change though if Israel sends some of its Patriots to Ukraine via the US as was explained here early last month, but that thus far hasn’t happened, hence why their disagreements over Palestine remain manageable.
Accordingly, it’s a conspiracy theory to believe that Russia has been allied with the Iranian-led Resistance Axis this entire time and is secretly arming the Islamic Republic in order to facilitate Israel’s destruction, which Putin criticized Iran over a decade ago for declaring as its goal. Upon accepting that he has no such intent, especially since he’s a proud lifelong philo-Semite as proven by his official statements over the years that were collected here, it’s time to move along to what his “military diplomacy” aims to achieve.
Generally speaking, Russia’s arms exports aim to maintain the balance of power between competing pairs of countries in order to encourage them to employ diplomatic means instead of military ones for settling their disputes, such as is the case with China-India and China-Vietnam. This is advanced by a combination of defensive and offensive systems for deterrence purposes, the first of which are meant to blunt a first strike while the second give the targeted state the ability to retaliate per its sovereign right.
Circling back to the contemporary regional context, Iran is known to have many highly effective indigenously built offensive capabilities, most famously its large-scale drone and missile stockpile. It’s therefore unrealistic to imagine that it requires any assistance from Russia in this respect when credible reports have circulated over the past two years claiming that Russia has buying drones from Iran. What Iran apparently lacks, however, are effective defensive capabilities for blunting its foes’ first strikes.
Without these, any equivalent or overmatched retaliatory strikes by Israel – especially if they’re carried out with the US, which is deploying more air and sea assets to the region, and just sent the CENTCOM chief there – could overwhelm Iran, inflict lots of destruction, and shift the balance of power. That outcome would complicate Russia’s regional policy, hence why it might indeed be sending emergency air defense and electronic warfare systems to Iran in order to improve its partner’s defensive capabilities.
This would align with the principles that were discussed in this analysis by maintaining the regional balance of power through “military diplomacy” in order to prevent one rival from gaining an edge over the other and then deliberately exploiting it to trigger a larger conflict that they’d expect to win. Just like Russia might be bolstering Iran’s defenses, so too did it earlier do the same with Israel’s after its military spokesman revealed in September 2018 that they carved out a buffer zone for it in Syria’s Golan Heights.
According to RT’s report at the time, “The Russian military supported the Syrian military operation in the Golan Heights to ‘ensure there were no shelling attacks on Israeli territory’ anymore, thus allowing the UN peacekeeping mission to resume patrolling of the contested border between Syria and Israel after ‘a six-year hiatus.’” The context concerned the Russian-Israeli mid-air incident earlier that month which led to Syria accidentally shooting down a Russian spy plane after an Israeli jet’s irresponsible maneuver.
RT added that “Russia also managed to secure the withdrawal of all Iran-backed groups from the Golan Heights to a ‘safe distance for Israel,’ more than 140 kilometers to the east of Syria, the spokesperson said, adding that this was done at the request of Tel Aviv. ‘A total of 1,050 personnel, 24 MLRSs and tactical missiles, as well as 145 pieces of other munitions and military equipment were withdrawn from the area,’ Konashenkov told journalists.”
In connection with that, it should also be mentioned that Russia has yet to allow Syria to use the S-300s for defending itself and its allies from Israeli strikes, the calculation of which was explained here. In brief, Russia believes that shooting down Israeli jets could lead to a regional escalation, and it hasn’t changed its stance despite the latest conflict and Israel’s bombing of the Iranian Consulate in Damascus. As was earlier written, however, Israel’s arming of Ukraine could see Russia finally giving Syria the greenlight.
The preceding insight is important for readers to keep in mind since it counteracts false claims from agenda-driven Alt-Media influencers that Russia’s speculative emergency military assistance to Iran, which is most likely just defensive as explained, supposedly signals that it’s against Israel. The same folks never spun the buffer zone that Russia carved out for Israel in Syria’s Golan Heights or its continued refusal to let Syria use the S-300s as supposedly signaling that it’s against Iran.
These double standards are being applied to mislead people about Russia’s regional policy for reasons that only these same people can account for if they’re politely questioned, but which lends false credence to Westerns claims that Russia is “warmongering” in West Asia whether they realize it or not. As the world braces for Iran and its Resistance Axis allies’ response to Israel’s assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran, it’s important to remember that Russia wants to avoid a larger war, not fuel one.
Having a false understanding of Russian foreign policy and correspondingly false expectations about its regional intentions will inevitably lead to deep disappointment among its supporters, which could subsequently be exploited by adversarial forces to falsely allege that “Russia sold Iran out” or whatever. The Alt-Media Community is therefore advised to exercise restraint when it comes to sharing unsubstantiated claims about Russia so as to avoid inadvertently damaging its diplomacy and reputation.
