The American Establishment just sent its clearest signal yet that it’s done with Zelensky after Atlantic Council senior fellow Adrian Karatnycky’s demand in his latest article for Politico that “Ukraine needs a government of national unity”. In brief, he assessed that Kiev’s lies about the failed counteroffensive, its forced conscription policy, impending social cuts, Zelensky’s growing reclusiveness, and his newly exacerbated political rivalries “are contributing to justifiable public anger toward the authorities.”
“NATO’s Proxy War On Russia Through Ukraine Appears To Be Winding Down” and “Western Policymakers Are Panicking Because There Was No Plan B If The Counteroffensive Failed”. The warmongers might carry out a false flag attack against Belarus like its State Security Committee Chairman recently warned is being considered out of desperation to keep the conflict going while the pragmatics will settle for a ‘land-for-peace’ deal. As of now, no decision has been made, but one will soon come.
The first scenario entails the risk of a larger conflict by miscalculation, while the second amounts to the West’s undeniable defeat. Zelensky is in favor of the former since the latter would result in the end of his political career, hence why he’s thus far refused reported Western pressure to recommence peace talks with Russia. Instead, he’s bracing for a potential offensive by fortifying the entire front, but both the eastern and southern directions thereof are showing signs of a brewing mutiny as explained here.
While “Naryshkin’s Scenario Forecast About The West Replacing Zelensky Shouldn’t Be Scoffed At”, in the event of a military coup by his top rival Valery Zaluzhny, the US would be legally compelled to cut off military aid unless a waiver is provided on the basis that national security interests require one. That’s all but guaranteed given the context but would be extremely embarrassing for the US and completely undermine its rhetoric about this conflict supposedly being fought over ‘democracy’.
With these reputational risks in mind, Karatnycky’s demand for a “government of national unity” essentially functions as the first step in a “phased leadership transition” scenario, which breaks the imbroglio over the previously mentioned dilemma. Few have heard of him before, but his employer is a think tank that’s infamous for being one of the Beltway’s most influential, so much so that it was banned in Russia four and a half years back for posing a threat to its national security.
As for Politico, which is the Mainstream Media outlet that he (or likely his handlers) chose as the one for introducing this demand into the discourse, it’s heavily relied upon by policymakers and was therefore understandably selected in order to ensure maximum awareness among those that matter the most. The combination of these two working in tandem extends credence to the claim that his article was the clearest signal yet from the American Establishment that it’s done with Zelensky.
Karatnycky explained that “Opening the government to opposition and civil society leaders in this way would instantly provide legitimacy to the leadership team, reduce opposition criticism and widen the circle of voices that have the president’s ear.” In practice, this would establish the ‘face-saving’ pretext for him to recommence peace talks on a ‘land-for-peace’ deal along the lines of former NATO Supreme Commander Admiral James Stavridis’ proposal from early November that he shared with Bloomberg.
It could also ease his replacement with Zaluzhny in a ‘democratic’ way that would avoid having the Commander-in-Chief carry out a coup with Western approval in order to restart these same talks. If Zelensky doesn’t go along with this, then that aforesaid scenario might come to fruition in order to avoiding losing hard-earned on-the-ground gains in the face of any forthcoming Russian offensive or risk a larger conflict by miscalculation if that happens and NATO formally intervenes to draw a ‘red line’.
Simply put, the walls are closing in on Zelensky as the American Establishment gives him what might be his last chance to exit the stage without losing his life, but the messianic delusions of maximum victory that Time Magazine said he has per an unnamed senior aide might blind him to the opportunity. In that case, the ‘Maidan 3’ that he desperately tried to preemptively discredit last month might materialize by early next year, which could either directly lead to his ouster or prompt a military coup to that end.
