The violent unrest that swept the Kenyan capital of Nairobi last week caught the world by surprise since this country is renowned for being much more politically stable than most of its African peers. The abrupt nature of this development led to wild speculation about its cause, with some interpreting it as an anti-American revolt. This was due to Kenya’s new status as the US’ first sub-Saharan “Major Non-NATO Ally” and its decision to dispatch police forces to Haiti. Here are two background briefings:
* 27 May: “It Was Predictable That Kenya Would Become The US’ First Sub-Saharan Major Non-NATO Ally”
* 31 May: “An Ethiopian Analyst Shared Sharp Insight Into The American-Kenyan Military Deal”
One of the more influential Alt-Media accounts that interpreted the latest events as an anti-American revolt was the “New Rules” geopolitics podcast, which is hosted by Dimitri Simes Jr. and produced by Sputnik. Their X account posted the following: “Massive protests in Kenya against pro-American government. US calls Kenya a major non-NATO ally and is pushing its government to send police forces to Haiti. But the Kenyan people are fed up with this ‘America First’ approach.”
The reality, however, is that people rioted in response to a tax reform bill that they regarded as a betrayal of the president’s promise to relieve the lower classes’ economic suffering. While perhaps a few of the thousands of protesters might have been motivated by their opposition to his pro-American foreign policy, the overwhelming majority don’t care (if they’re even aware of it) because it doesn’t affect them. Accordingly, Ruto withdrew the bill as a de-escalation measure, though some level of unrest continues.
The reason why it’s important to clarify the reasons behind what happened is so that casual observers don’t get any false expectations about political processes in that country. Unlike the Sahel, which has seen a wave of multipolar revolutions over the past few years driven by their deeply impoverished people’s desperation for a better future, Kenya has no real chance of experiencing these processes. Although it too has some poverty, people there generally live better than in most parts of Africa.
Its armed forces are also much more disciplined and don’t have a history of carrying out military coups under whatever pretext it may be, nor is there an out-of-control terrorism problem that could add a dire sense of urgency to the people’s demands for a change in government like in the Sahel. On top of that, these same armed forces also just showed that they have no compunctions about resorting to lethal force against rioters upon being ordered to, which greatly reduces the chances of a coup.
Having clarified why the latest unrest in Kenya wasn’t an anti-American revolt, it’s time to say a few words about why some well-intentioned accounts like Simes Jr.’s “New Rules” geopolitics podcast arrived at that false conclusion. Alt-Media is full of sincere multipolar supporters who have a tendency to wishfully think that everything everywhere is unfolding according to their worldview. In their minds, violent unrest in a pro-American country could only be an anti-American revolt, not anything else.
While they’re entitled to their opinion and there’s never any shame in getting something wrong, average members of the Alt-Media Community risk being inadvertently misled whenever influential members pass off an opinion as fact, but which later turns out have been objectively untrue. Left unaddressed without setting the record straight sometime later, the associated false perceptions about whatever issue it may be can begin to be taken for granted, thus forming a part of the community’s dogma.
For instance, just like how the violent unrest in Kenya wasn’t an anti-American revolt, nor was the failed coup in Bolivia a CIA regime change plot as explained here. To summarize, it was an opportunistic ploy by a newly dismissed military leader, albeit one from which the US would have benefited had it succeeded. The lack of any popular preconditioning whatsoever in the run-up to that event coupled with the equal lack of military unity (i.e. no one was paid off), however, discredits the claim of a preplanned CIA plot.
Nevertheless, each of the abovementioned false interpretations of events still advances the narrative interests of the Alt-Media Community even if that isn’t the intent of everyone who believes or spreads them. The Kenyan one wrongly implies that this country is on the brink of a Sahelian-like multipolar revolution, while the Bolivian one presents the failed coup as a David-vs-Goliath victory over the CIA. Neither is true as was explained, but they keep morale high and reaffirm political talking points.
Therein lies the double-edged sword, however, since unrealistic expectations (especially those that are ridiculously high such as expecting an impending multipolar revolution in Kenya) inevitably lead to deep disappointment, after which folks might become despondent and possibly give up on the cause. It’s therefore always better to reflect objective reality as accurately as one can, understanding that this is impossible to perfectly do so in practice, but still trying one’s best to always aspire to this.
