Indian tycoon Gautam Adani was charged with five corruption-related criminal counts by US prosecutors last week for his role in allegedly bribing some of his own government’s officials. New NATO partner Kenya then canceled $2.5 billion in deals with his company, whose stock plummeted by around 23% at a loss of approximately $26 billion. The Adani Group is also the target of Hindenburg Research’s critical reports, which is partially funded by Soros, who de facto declared Hybrid War on India in early 2023.
To add to the larger context, the Biden Administration has been the least friendly towards India since the infamous Nixon one as proven by it pressuring the country to dump Russia, ramping up claims of alleged religious discrimination, accusing India of an alleged assassination attempt inside the US, meddling in this year’s general elections, and helping to overthrow the former Indian-friendly Bangladeshi government. These developments lead to suspicions that the latest charges are also politicized.
Although there’s a formal separation of powers inside the US, the reality is that the Executive Branch and the Intelligence Community unofficially exert disproportionate influence over some criminal proceedings, especially in cases that have a sensitive foreign dimension like this one and the alleged assassination attempt. The reason why the Biden Administration turned on India is because it won’t dump Russia and its accelerated rise as a globally significant Great Power erodes the US’ hegemony.
It was explained shortly after the latest presidential election that “Trump Can Repair The Damage That Biden Dealt To Indo-US Ties” through the six policy changes that were described in the preceding hyperlinked analysis, yet the latest charges are meant to complicate that. Adani is one of the most important people in India, and his Group is among its top global brands. They’ve combined to become a powerful national asset whose persecution through lawfare is meant to send a strong political message.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi knows that this is Biden’s parting gift to him, one that’s being given with pure malice in order to make it more difficult for his successor to improve bilateral relations. Even if Trump purges his permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) of the anti-Indian elements that he’ll soon inherit, which he’s unlikely to do in full no matter how hard he tries, then he’ll still have to deal with the consequences of these two criminal cases.
Although it was earlier written that the Executive Branch and the Intelligence Community unofficially exert disproportionate influence over some criminal proceedings like these sensitive foreign-connected ones, the ball’s already rolling and there are too many watching now for them to interfere in these cases. These are basically Biden’s time bombs that are meant to inflict continued damage to Indo-US ties, and especially to India’s international reputation, long after he’s already left office.
India should therefore deal with the next Trump Administration in good faith but not get its hopes up for a major turnaround since Biden is saddling his successor with heavy baggage to impede this. Their ties might never return to their golden era under his first term since too much has changed globally and in terms of their relations for that to happen. The best that India can expect is that Trump stops meddling in its internal affairs and pressuring it on Russia, but both might still continue, albeit at a lesser intensity.
