Polish special services spokesman Stanislaw Zaryn published two detailed threads on Twitter in recent days warning about post-election unrest driven by claims of fraud. The first one here details how “Civic Platform” (PO) opposition leader Donald Tusk is preconditioning Poles and the international community not to accept the elections’ results. Meanwhile, the second one here lambasts Anne Applebaum for laundering this narrative in her latest article for The Atlantic, which is read by Western policymakers.
Tusk used to serve as the Polish Prime Minister and then President of the European Council afterwards, while Applebaum is married to former Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, who’s nowadays a member of the European Parliament and still a key figure in PO. Taken together, their arguably coordinated information warfare narrative alleges that the ruling “Law & Justice” (PiS) party plans to defraud the vote in order to keep PO out of power, the claim of which can be exploited to incite post-election unrest.
It’s no small matter that an official as important as Zaryn has taken to publicly calling both of those two out since it shows that Poland’s special services are seriously concerned about the preceding scenario. Tusk has proven himself capable of organizing large-scale rallies so it can’t be discounted that he and his speculative German patrons might seek to provoke a Color Revolution if PO doesn’t outperform PiS next weekend.
Politico’s regularly updated poll indicates that the gap between the two has recently narrowed but PiS still commands an approximately 6% lead. Unless something unforeseen happens in the next week, then PiS is expected to win re-election and be tasked with forming the next government, which would almost certainly have to be a coalition comprised of minor parties like the anti-establishment Confederation one. The point is that Politico’s latest polling data challenges PO’s electoral fraud narrative.
If that doesn’t change, then their claims will be undercut, but that still might not stop them from commencing a Color Revolution aimed at overthrowing Poland’s imperfectly conservative-nationalist ruling party. The reason for this prediction is that the opposition are hardcore liberal–globalists hellbent on reversing even the piecemeal progress that the incumbents made in that aforesaid political direction. PO is also rabidly upset about the Polish–Ukrainian dispute that exploded last month too.
The purpose behind weaponizing protests against the ruling party would be to pressure them into a combination of power-sharing agreements and various policy concessions that would altogether result in reversing the elections’ results whether de facto or de jure. Tusk’s self-interested narrative implying that his party would only lose the elections due to fraud and Applebaum’s subsequent laundering of this claim to the Western audience strongly suggest that PO is prepared to go ahead with this scenario.
It’s premature to predict the way in which events might then unfold since there are too many unknown variables involved, but it’s nevertheless important for observers to be aware of these designs in advance so that they aren’t duped into falling for the opposition’s spin. Any post-election unrest driven by claims of fraud would arguably be a German-led Color Revolution against Poland’s imperfectly conservative-nationalist rulers as punishment for their defiance of the Western elites’ liberal-globalist policy demands.
