Fyodor Dostoevsky once wrote that “Your worst sin is that you have destroyed and betrayed yourself for nothing”, which is perfectly applicable when it comes to Pakistan’s post-modern coup against former Prime Minister Imran Khan in April 2022 that was orchestrated by its military and intelligence services. The expectation was that this multipolar leader’s scandalous removal from power and the subsequent persecution of him and his supporters would earn the US’ favor, yet the US is now turning on Pakistan.
It recently sanctioned Pakistan’s ballistic missile program, even unprecedentedly targeting a state agency, while the State Department just condemned its military court’s conviction of 25 civilians. Trump’s decision to appoint Richard Grenell as his envoy for special missions added to the latest US pressure on Pakistan after his nominee immediately began demanding Khan’s release. He also called out Pakistan’s anti-Semitic information warfare campaign against him and the death threats that he’s since received.
Another one of Grenell’s demands is to review all US aid to Pakistan after it was revealed that some recipients are participating in the aforesaid campaign against him and also played a role in upholding the outcome of April 2022’s post-modern coup. This seemingly abrupt policy change was actually a long time in the making and isn’t fully the result of Trump’s return. It can be explained by the post-modern coup regime’s reckless behavior that risks further destabilizing Pakistan and thus harming the US’ interests.
The US certainly wants to keep Pakistan in a subordinate position, but it also wants to economically benefit from the country’s approximately quarter-billion population, which is impossible to do if it slips further into domestic unrest due to rising political tensions and the recent upsurge in terrorist attacks. The first is directly due to the post-modern coup while the second is indirectly attributable to them prioritizing their anti-democratic crackdown over ensuring national security interests.
To make matters even worse, the economy tanked after the post-modern coup and investor confidence in Pakistan then plunged in equal measure, especially after it had to plead for another IMF bailout that predictably didn’t resolve its structural economic problems. While Pakistan’s deeper indebtedness to this American-controlled institution advances some US interests, that only holds true so long as it doesn’t collapse under the weight of its now-interconnected political, economic, and security crises.
This downward spiral was abetted by the blank check that America hitherto wrote for its partners in the Pakistani military and intelligence services to do whatever they wanted. If the US had the foresight upon being properly advised by bonafide experts, then it would have placed some limits on this, but the regime also could have exercised self-restraint if it had any wisdom too. The situation is now spinning out of control and the only way to avert the worst-case scenario is to pressure the regime into concessions.
That same regime doesn’t want to lose its privileges since it fears that Khan will prosecute those involved in the post-modern coup against him and the subsequent persecution of him and his supporters. They also expect him to then bring all corrupt elements of the state to justice too, including those who crashed its economy. They’re therefore reluctant to enter into any compromises without guarantees that they won’t be charged for their crimes, which neither the US nor Khan appear interested in giving them.
Khan was also a close friend of Trump’s, which adds context to Grenell’s passionate advocacy for the imprisoned Pakistani leader’s cause, so the returning president might not abandon his buddy. Not only that, but Trump has a hyper-realist understanding of American interests, and letting Pakistan collapse (even if the process is painfully drawn out and takes time to reach its conclusion) wouldn’t improve the US’ regional position. It’s therefore expected that US pressure on Pakistan will increase after his return.
The lesson to be learned is that the orchestrators of April 2022’s post-modern coup destroyed Pakistan and betrayed its national interests for nothing since bilateral ties are now worse than they were before that regime change while the economy is much weaker and there’s much more domestic instability too. This was foreseeable, and patriotic Pakistanis echoed Dostoevsky’s famous words right at the beginning of this disaster, but everything fell on deaf ears since the regime arrogantly thought that it knew better.
