A newly trained Somalian soldier who earlier defected from Al-Shabaab (AS) opened fire on his comrades inside a Mogadishu military base on Saturday while they were praying, killing at least three Emirati troops and a Bahraini officer. Although his former group took credit for this terrorist attack, the argument can be made that Somalian ultra-nationalist trolls inspired it after spewing toxic narratives in the six weeks since the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland.
That agreement will liberate Ethiopia from its geographic prison and preemptively avert interconnected domestic-international crises stemming from its landlocked status. Those who aren’t all that aware of its importance should review the preceding hyperlinked analysis for more details. The relevance in this context is that Somalian ultra-nationalist trolls wildly speculated that the UAE is exploiting its close Ethiopian partner as a proxy to “Balkanize” the Horn of Africa and specifically Somalia.
Although that Arab country’s DP World manages Somaliland’s Port of Berbera, that purely economic arrangement hadn’t been an obstacle to bilateral relations with Somalia, ergo why Emirati troops were invited by the authorities to train their Somalian counterparts in the capital. Nevertheless, Somalian ultra-nationalist trolls spun their mutually beneficial military cooperation as a betrayal of national interests by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM), who they hate for not kicking out its forces.
Top Somalian ultra-nationalist troll account “Elham Ishmael”, who an Ethiopian activist claimed is actually a Somalian man posting under his daughter’s name on X, has been spitting venom against both the UAE and HSM ever since the terrorist attack happened. They implied to their over 105k followers that he’s an Emirati puppet here, claimed that “The rest of Somalia is sticking the middle finger up” to both right now, and ridiculously described the UAE as “Satan” here.
These sentiments aren’t exceptional, but are par for the course since the MoU was signed on the first of the year, with this particular ultra-nationalist troll account simply embodying and exacerbating them at a scale unmatched by practically all of their peers. The reason why this is important to be informed about is because these toxic narratives might have inspired the culprit to target Emirati troops, after which the terrorist group from which they defected opportunistically took credit for clout.
Casual observers outside the region might not be aware of it, but “The Somalin Authorities & Al-Shabaab Are On The Same Side Against Ethiopia’s Somaliland Port Deal”. In fact, “The Somalin Leader Is Looking For Allies As He Plots Hybrid War Against Ethiopia & Somaliland”, with the most likely state-level ones being Eritrea and Egypt who HSM recently visited, both of whom could arm and finance AS as their proxies. This emerging informal alliance represents the greatest threat to regional stability.
When referring to AS, however, one shouldn’t simply have in mind the semi-organized terrorist group that still controls parts of Somalia. Rather, it’s much more accurate to conceptualize it as a state of mind due to it representing the dangerous fusion of ultra-nationalism and religious fundamentalism, which in turn allows one to obtain a greater sense of the threat that it poses. Many people aren’t formal members of the group but sympathize with its hybrid ideology, especially after the MoU was signed.
The culprit who carried out Saturday’s terrorist attack was arguably one such individual, who was already predisposed to extremism due to his personal history but likely snapped back into that mindset after being influenced by the toxic narratives spewed by ultra-nationalist trolls like “Elham Ishmael”. That particular account’s information warfare campaign touches on both pillars of AS’ ideology by falsely framing the UAE as a security threat and then implying that they’re apostates (“Satan”).
This combination of false claims was always meant from the get-go to trigger those who sympathize with AS (whether consciously or subconsciously) into carrying out “lone wolf” terrorist attacks after being manipulated into thinking that doing so can save Somalia and punish infidels. No average person would ever countenance doing so, but many Somalians are traumatized by decades of civil war and abject poverty, thus greatly increasing the pool of possible people who could be misled into these schemes.
Somalian ultra-nationalists like “Elham Ishmael” are therefore responsible not only for Saturday’s terrorist attack, but for all similar ones that might soon occur. They know exactly what they’re doing, and that’s radicalizing their targeted Somalian audience in order to inspire acts of terrorism aimed at advancing their envisaged Hybrid War on Ethiopia, Somaliland, and now also the UAE as well. All decent Somalians must therefore disavow this and other troll accounts before everything spirals out of control.
