Chief of the Serbian General Staff General Milan Mojsilovic explained his country’s military calculations in light of last summer’s multibillion-dollar Rafale warplane deal and Western sanctions against Russia in a recent interview with local media. According to him, the first was “primarily based on a tactical study” that allegedly concluded that this was the best option for ensuring his nation’s security needs, which entails “complex preparations” with France that informally amount to a pro-Western military pivot.
After answering the question about that deal, he was then asked about the effect that Western sanctions have had on military-technical cooperation with Moscow, to which he responded by revealing that “We terminated some contracts and postponed some” since “the delivery of weapons” from Russia “is practically impossible at the moment.” Paired with his previous answer, it becomes clear that Serbia’s pro-Western military pivot is being carried out under sanctions duress, not purely anti-Russian reasons.
To be sure, Serbia had already been leaning towards the West even before last summer’s multibillion-dollar deal as evidenced by it voting against Russia on Ukraine at the UNGA and reportedly even arming Kiev through indirect means, but Mojsilovic’s revelation of terminated and postponed military deals takes this to an altogether different level. Before discussing the potential consequences, the reader should review these background briefings about Serbia’s clumsy “balancing act”:
* 7 June 2023: “Serbia’s Anti-Government Protesters Are A Mix Of Color Revolutionaries & Patriots”
* 25 December 2023: “The West Isn’t Content With Vucic’s Many Concessions And Wants Full Control Over Serbia”
* 11 August 2024: “The Serbian Government Is Inadvertently Responsible For The Latest Color Revolution Intrigue”
* 2 September 2024: “Serbia’s French Warplane Deal Discredits Vucic’s Earlier Color Revolution Claim”
* 3 November 2024: “Hungary Won’t Let Its Arms & Ammo Be Used Against Russia Unlike Serbia”
The gist is that the West sees the chance to obtain full control over Serbia due to President Aleksandar Vucic’s friendliness towards them and the past three years’ anti-Russian sanctions. To that end, they’re squeezing him from above through sanctions and political pressure as well as below through the exploitation of grassroots protests for Color Revolution ends. As regards the latter, President of the Srebrenica Historical Project Stefan Karganovic published a detailed report about the latest tactics here.
Serbia therefore feels like it has no choice but to distance itself from Russia, especially in the military-technical sphere, which could replace multipolar influence in its armed forces with unipolar influence. Purchasing more French arms and training more with its forces while purchasing less of Russia’s and training less with its forces can bring this about. Seeing how successful the sanctions have been in this respect, they’re unlikely to be lifted, at least not those that ruined Russian-Serbian military cooperation.
Serbia’s pro-Western military pivot could easily lead to a more profound pivot that undoes decades of strategic ties with Russia in just a few years. Serbia might thus become even more of a Western vassal than it currently is, which could culminate in the imposition of sanctions against Russia, something that Vucic has thus far refused to do but might soon be coerced into. The latest American sanctions threats against Serbia for Russian majority ownership of its oil major could be the straw that breaks its back.
