Putin’s strongly worded warning against the West letting Ukraine use their long-range weapons to strike deep inside of Russia, which could only occur through NATO’s behind-the-scenes assistance, prompted a lot of speculation about whether he’d use nuclear weapons in response or at least test them once again. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov just rubbished the second scenario though after he confirmed that his country won’t test nukes unless the US does so first. Here are a few background briefings:
* “Korybko To Karaganov: Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine Shouldn’t Apply To Any Territorial Encroachment”
* “What Would Really Be Achieved By Russia Using Nuclear Weapons In Ukraine At This Point?”
* “Lavrov Explained What Russia Hopes To Achieve By Talking About Its Red Lines”
Russia’s policy reaffirmation is a rebuke to hawks like Karaganov who are lobbying for a more muscular approach towards nuclear deterrence. In their minds, a demonstration test could scare the West into backing off from militarily supporting Ukraine out of fear that Russia might soon resort to using nuclear weapons there, but this thinking carries with it the risk that the West might still refuse. Russia would then be pressured to use them in order to “save face” or risk looking like the West called its bluff.
Putin doesn’t want to be placed in that dilemma, ergo why he tasked Ryabkov with clarifying that no test is being considered. He’s extremely cautious by nature and is accordingly very reluctant to do anything that could escalate the proxy war with NATO into World War III. Testing nukes first would be spun by the West as “unprovoked saber-rattling”, predictably lead to a reciprocal American test, and then possibly be exploited to ramp up support for Ukraine in order to not appear to be “backing down” to Russia.
If Russia didn’t follow up by using nukes in Ukraine under those circumstances, which there’s no military or strategic need to do anyhow as explained in the earlier cited analysis above, then it would look like it was the one “backing down” to the US. If the US was the first to resume testing of nuclear weapons, however, then Russia’s reciprocal test would appear to be a display of confidence and self-respect instead of a bluff driven by weakness and perhaps even a bit of desperation.
Returning to the hawks, they’re convinced that the West already thinks that Russia is weak and desperate after its prior setbacks in the field and the repeated crossing of its perceived red lines, which is why they think that there’s nothing to lose even if they test nukes but then don’t use them. They of course want Russia use nukes as Karaganov has explicitly proposed, including against some of NATO’s European members like he suggested in summer 2023, but they’d be pleased even if it only tests them.
Putin has presumably been informed of how weak and desperate some in the West think that his country has become as evidenced by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently referencing what he described as their “child’s mentality” towards the crossing of its red lines. Nevertheless, he still believes that the main decisionmakers know that they can’t cross the ultimate red line of directly attacking Russia, hence why it hasn’t yet happened and they continue waging war against it via proxy means.
If these comparatively more rational decisionmakers thought that Russia was serious about using nuclear weapons in Ukraine and became worried about the resultant escalation cycle could lead to World War III, then they might consider crossing that ultimate red line first in order to have an advantage. Prior calculations among some hawks were that they’d then “back down” and abandon Ukraine, but they could also “step up” and intensify their proxy war against Russia, including by directly attacking it.
Being as cautious as he is, Putin doesn’t want to take the risk of spooking them into that worst-case scenario, thus adding another dimension to why he doesn’t want to test nukes first. His thinking could always change, but what was explained in this analysis cogently accounts for why he had Ryabkov rebuke hawks like Karaganov. He doesn’t want the US thinking that he’s about to escalate and thus tempt it into escalating first in a way that could then spiral out of control into World War III like he fears.
In other words, he believes that practicing the “madman theory” like his hawks and their media surrogates want might backfire, and he’s not comfortable risking that. He’d rather have Russia perceived among some Westerners as weak and desperate as long as their main decisionmakers still think otherwise and therefore won’t dare to attack Russia directly. He also doesn’t want to scare the latter into considering a first strike either, however, which he’s worried that a nuclear test might eventually lead to.
For these reasons, Putin is content to wait until the US tests nukes first, and he also has no interest in using them unless Russia is directly attacked by NATO or is convinced that it’s right about to be attacked. The US won’t cross that ultimate red line though and Russia hasn’t suggested that it’s even considering it. That being the case, he doesn’t believe that there’s anything to be gained by testing nukes and thus risking the chance that this status quo could change, much to the chagrin of hawks on both sides.
