It was earlier assessed that “Russia Is Unlikely To Let Syria Get Involved In The Latest Israeli-Hamas War” because it doesn’t want the conflict to expand, but it also doesn’t control Syria so there’s only so much that it can do in this regard. That’s why the preceding analysis also predicted that “In the event that Damascus still does so in defiance of Moscow and the latter is unable to stop it in time, then the Kremlin will likely let Israel respond however it deems necessary to defend itself and the Jewish people.”
This forecast was confirmed several times thus far after Israel bombed Syrian airports on the pretext of impeding Iranian arms shipments without Russia intervening to stop it despite Moscow later protesting that these attacks violate international law and destabilize the region. The Kremlin is expected to retain this position since it’s the most pragmatic one possible. From its perspective, Syria has the right to militarily cooperate with Iran, but Israel also has the right to prevent the opening of a second front too.
That’s why Russia protests Israel’s violation of international law but never does anything to prevent its recurrence since it tacitly regards these attacks as the so-called “lesser evil” when compared to the scenario of Iran opening up a second front against the self-professed Jewish State in Syria. Such a front could still be opened from Lebanon, however, which could prompt a large-scale joint Israeli-American bombing campaign at the very least and is precisely what Russia wants to avoid having happen to Syria.
All of its anti-terrorist successes there since 2015 could be reversed in an instant should that happen since it would create space for the revival of ISIS and other groups, thus restoring the security threats that they posed to Russia back then and which triggered its intervention in the first place. To be sure, any large-scale bombing of Lebanon could lead to similar such threats, but they could be managed a bit better since that country’s neighbors – Israel and Syria – wouldn’t let foreign fighters enter the fray.
Another reason why Russia is so strongly against Syria opening up a second front in the Israeli-Hamas war is because of the political pressure that this would place upon it. The Mainstream Media would claim that Moscow had a hand in this, thus extending false credence to Zelensky’s debunked conspiracy theory that it helped orchestrate Hamas’ infamous terrorist attack in early October, while Russia also knows how bad it would look in the Global South’s eyes if it stands aside as Israel destroys Syria.
It’s not going to risk World War III with Israel’s American ally just for the sake of protecting its security interests in Syria, which is why there’s no credible chance that Russia would militarily intervene to stop this scenario, hence the aforesaid assessment of the soft power consequences that it wants to avoid. Accordingly, Russia is expected to continue letting Israel bomb Iranian assets in Syria with impunity since these attacks aim to prevent the opening of a second front, which is against its interests as explained.
