Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski came out against Zelensky’s proposal for an “army of Europe” by flatly declaring that “it will not happen” despite many of his peers wanting to prioritize such plans in light of the US’ impending disengagement from the continent that JD Vance hinted at in his historic speech. Casual observers assumed that this lifelong Europhile would have jumped at the opportunity, as would former President of the European Council-turned-Prime Minister Donald Tusk, but that didn’t happen.
Even though they’re more of an Anglophile and Germanophile respectively than they are Europhiles, and their corresponding foreign patrons support Zelensky’s proposal, Sikorski and Tusk’s half of Poland’s ruling duopoly must most immediately appeal to public opinion ahead of May’s presidential election. They need to replace outgoing President Andrzej Duda with their fellow “Civic Platform” (PO) member Rafal Trzaskowski instead of allowing his fellow “Law & Justice” (PiS) member Karol Nawrocki to do so.
Tusk’s PO-led liberal-globalist coalition came to power in fall 2023 but have been unable to implement their radical socio-cultural agenda at home due to the (very imperfect) conservative president’s veto rights. Replacing him with Trzaskowski would enable PO to fulfill their plans while his replacement by Nawrocki would lead to a continued impasse until fall 2027’s next parliamentary elections. On the foreign policy front, both PO and PiS are pro-American, albeit to different degrees.
PO can’t be described as anti-American by any stretch, but it’s traditionally been considered more pro-German than pro-American, while PiS has evolved into an openly anti-German party that’s rabidly pro-American. Accordingly, PO might hypothetically want to participate in an “army of Europe”, but they have to play it cool for now ahead of May’s presidential elections. At the same time, however, they’ve also evolved since fall 2023 and have begun to promote some policies in support of the national interest.
These have taken the form of fortifying PiS’ border wall with Belarus that was built to stop illegal immigrant invasions, which that neighboring country’s leader at the very least turns a blind eye to as an asymmetrical response to Poland’s regime change campaign against him, and standing up to Ukraine. The latter has seen Poland revive the Volhynia Genocide dispute in recent months and declare that it’ll only provide arms to Ukraine on credit instead of continuing to give them everything for free like before.
With these policies in mind, which might be sincere and not just a charade to win over some so-called “moderate nationalists” from PiS, PO might also be serious about its opposition to the “army of Europe”. In that case, it actually wouldn’t matter whether Trzaskowski or Nawrocki replaces Duda in several months’ time since Poland might still exclude itself from this regional process in pursuit of what its ruling duopoly would have apparently agreed to be the national interest.
To elaborate, Poland has consistently sought to carve out a “sphere of influence” for itself in Central & Eastern Europe, whether overlapping with parts of its former Commonwealth or expanding beyond those borders into new domains like the Balkans. These ambitions have taken the form of the 2009 “Eastern Partnership” that it co-founded with Sweden, the 2016 “Three Seas Initiative” that it co-founded with Croatia, and the 2020 “Lublin Triangle” that it co-founded with Lithuania and Ukraine.
Prior to PO’s pivot back to the gist of these plans late last year, the early months of its most recent rule essentially saw it subordinating Poland to Germany’s “Fortress Europe” concept, which refers to the Biden Administration’s plans to have the EU’s de facto leader take control of the continent as its proxy. Germany’s incomparable economic strength and ruling coalition’s liberal-globalist ideology paired with Olaf Scholz’s December 2022 hegemonic manifesto to make this a very attractive scenario for the US.
Everything changed since then after Trump’s unprecedented political comeback over the past year, which is revolutionizing the US’ foreign policy and led to Vance’s historic speech last week where he hinted at his country’s impending disengagement from Europe. Vance’s speech also importantly coincided with new Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s praise of Poland as “the model ally on the continent”, however, thus suggesting that the US will once again favor Poland over Germany.
That wouldn’t be surprising since it’s the same policy that Trump applied during his first term, but it would be greatly helped along if PiS remained in the presidency and Poland didn’t descend into the sort of liberal-globalist dystopia that Vance just railed against should Trzaskowski win. Even if he does, however, PO might exercise self-restraint and control some of its most extreme liberal-globalist impulses so as to not get on Trump’s bad side and risk being made an example out of like others already have.
The strengthening of Polish-US military ties throughout the US’ impending disengagement from Europe as it “Pivots (back) to Asia” to more muscularly contain China would advance both of their interests. From the American side, Poland can once again be wielded as a wedge for keeping German-Russia ties in check if they improve after the Ukrainian Conflict ends and the AfD plays a role in the next ruling coalition to help bring that about, which segues directly into what Poland stands to gain from this.
Simply put, its ruling duopoly’s dreams of restoring their country’s lost geopolitical glory could once again be entertained if the US returns to openly favoring Poland as its top European ally, which can lead to American backing for the Polish-led “Three Seas Initiative” and “Lublin Triangle” in pursuit of this. Poland would become the natural magnet for regionally disaffected states like the Baltics, Romania, and even Ukraine if the NATO-Russian proxy war ends in a compromise as expected so this is very plausible.
Depending on the outcome of the US’ reportedly planned rapprochement with Belarus, Poland might be encouraged to step up and repair relations with Russia’s top ally too, all in an attempt to lure Lukashenko away from Moscow and back towards his pre-summer 2020 “balancing act” to keep Putin on edge. None of this would be possible if Poland ceded even more of its sovereignty to the German-led EU by joining the “army of Europe” that Zelensky just proposed and thus weakened its military alliance with the US.
Some Poles also fear that the AfD’s possible role in Germany’s next ruling coalition could lead to the revival of at least informal claims to what Warsaw calls the “Recovered Territories” that were obtained after World War II. These were Polish for centuries before becoming German but it’s beyond the scope of this analysis to detail. Likewise, there’s also a risk that post-conflict Ukraine redirects some of its hyper-nationalism away from Russia to Poland, whose southeastern regions are claimed by some radicals.
Consequently, the US’ impending disengagement from Europe could embolden a partially AfD-ruled Germany and an irredeemably hyper-nationalist Ukraine to one day advance their claims to Poland (perhaps even jointly), which could only possibly be deterred by Poland’s close military ties with the US. Of relevance, Ukraine claims to already have almost 1 million troops while Poland and Germany are actively competing to build the EU’s largest army, with Poland already having the third-largest in NATO.
The preceding two paragraphs weren’t written to imply a prediction about Germany and/or Ukraine invading Poland, but simply to describe how Poland’s ruling duopoly might perceive the fast-moving processes in Europe right now and what they think they could possibly lead to. This interpretation would account for why the pro-German half of this duopoly that’s currently in power broke with Berlin over this issue and shows how easily the US can exploit this perception to continue dividing-and-ruling Europe.
Neither half of Poland’s ruling duopoly is expected to replace their fearmongering about a Russian invasion with fearmongering about a German and/or Ukrainian one, but they’re evidently concerned about the last two scenarios as proven by PO’s new approach towards the EU and the US. Refusing to cede more military sovereignty to the German-led EU while strengthening military ties with the US shows that even the most Europhilic half of this duopoly is hedging against the aforesaid threats.
Looking forward, PO will either expose the abovementioned approach as an electioneering charade after May’s presidential vote or it’ll continue along this trajectory by having Poland once again serve as the US’ top ally on the continent, following which its ruling duopoly would seek to derive some benefits. These could take the form of the US helping Poland restore its lost geopolitical glory in contemporary conditions via the “Three Seas Initiative” while deterring perceived German and/or Ukrainian threats.
The US’ impending disengagement from Europe would remain incomplete in that case since its continental focus would shift to Poland and its envisaged “sphere of influence”. The total amount of troops there would be less than what it now has in Europe, but it would still suffice for supervising them all after the Ukrainian Conflict ends. Everything depends on PO, however, and they might ultimately prefer keeping Poland subordinated to Germany instead of once again trying to rise as a regional power.
