South Asia observers were closely following the meeting between Russian President Putin and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on the sidelines of this week’s SCO Summit in Astana for signs of whether these two will be ale to break their impasse on comprehensively expanding ties. They last met two years ago at the 2022 SCO Summit in Tashkent, which was analyzed here at the time. The preceding hyperlinked piece drew attention to Putin’s high hopes of reaching a strategic energy deal with Pakistan.
That hasn’t come to fruition because Pakistan remains reluctant to defy the US despite the latter previously clarifying that no secondary sanctions will be imposed against Russia’s energy partners. The post-modern coup regime that was installed in April 2022 after the scandalous ouster of former Prime Minister Imran Khan takes most – but importantly not all – of its cues from America. Even though they know they won’t be sanctioned for buying these resources, they still know that the US disapproves of it.
This insight exposes the insincerity of the comments that Sharif made to Putin per the official Kremlin transcript that can be read here. The Pakistani leader said that trade is approaching $1 billion but omitted to mention that this is largely due to Russian wheat exports to his country. His suggestion to “further move” in the direction of more oil imports ignores the fact that the ball in in his court and has been so for a year already since Pakistan indefinitely suspended such shipments on dubious pretexts.
The same can be said about Sharif’s proposal to restore barter between their countries, the decision of which was approved over a year ago yet nothing significant has happened since then. Some fruit and leather exports reached the Russian market, but these were just trials intended to prove the viability of trading through the North-South Transport Corridor via Iran and Azerbaijan. If the will was there, then barter would have surged by now, but it’s instead turned into another disappointing lost opportunity.
As was explained here in late March, Pakistan must liberate itself from the yoke of American hegemony in order to comprehensively expand ties with Russia, though that remains a political fantasy for now since the current political arrangement was installed with US backing. It sometimes stretches the limits of how far it can go without facing America’s wrath, such as regarding ties with China and Iran, but the ruling clique knows that clinching a strategic energy deal with Russia would cross an invisible red line.
Nevertheless, Putin still thought it worthwhile to mention his interest in doing so since it’s the pivotal factor in determining whether bilateral relations remain cordial or evolve into a strategic partnership, the latter of which could happen if such a deal is reached in parallel with a trans-Afghan trade corridor. The basis exists for their ties to reach that level, though it’s entirely Pakistan’s decision whether or not they ever reach that point, and it thus far looks like it’s not seriously interested in having that happen.
Abstaining from unfriendly UNGA Resolutions on Russia and praising that country’s regional role from time to time are just superficial signals of support that haven’t yet translated into anything tangible. They’re welcome moves, no doubt about that, but it’s long since been time for Pakistan to put its money where its mouth is and begin doing what’s needed to prove that it’s not just stringing Russia along. Maintaining the status quo is fine, but if that’s all that Pakistan wants, then it should be clear about it.
